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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>ubject: Re: [ExI] sturgis rolls on<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>On Sat, 8 Aug 2020 at 21:50, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>>>… Do let us put our heads together on this, shall we? There should be a way to find out if the Sturgis rally kicked off a big new wave in a coupla weeks, ja? I know there is plenty of statistical talent here.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> _______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>>…Well, bikers are not exactly popular with the media and the media enjoy broadcasting the Covid panic, so I would expect any new virus wave to have headlines in every newspaper and TV news channel.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>No research needed.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>BillK.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Hi BillK, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>On the contrary sir, for part of it: agreed media love to broadcast covid panic, but disagree bikers are not exactly popular. Bikers are generally popular in the mainstream press: we get killed a lot, giving them something exciting to write about, as well as we help supply perfectly good organs, which also results in heartwarming stories by donor recipients. I plan to donate my brain to Alcor, give the usable organs of it to anyone who wants it, and have the rest of the junk fed to the ants. But I digress.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The problem with that media approach is that it is too subjective, which is why information coming from the mainstream press isn't particularly useful. They are also generally contradictory. We are told some South Dakota political rally on 4 July resulted in a covid wave but I can't see it. Can you?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><img width=585 height=574 style='width:6.0937in;height:5.9791in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.jpg@01D66D9A.B788B7F0"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>These numbers are pretty typical of other surrounding states with different policies (South Dakota is filled with Swedish people and they do things there Swedish style (the government didn’t demand shutdowns generally.))<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>They didn’t actually say what they meant by “surge,” But I grew suspicious when the same outlets claimed the political rally caused a surge in cases but the riots did not. Dubious. How did the virus know which was which? Both events look like a virus playground to me.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I did notice South Dakota reports zero recoveries, even though the early cases were back five months ago. I dug a little and discovered what that means: in order to be recorded as recovered, the antibodies must be undetectable. By that reasoning, there are zero recoveries to date, and any fatality with any co-morbidity, such as some drunken Harley rider embedding herself in the grill of a Peterbilt can be counted as a Covid fatality so long as she has detectable covid antibodies (ensuring the local hospital gets paid (do pardon my cynical attitude please (we are harming ourselves and distorting otherwise useful data with that payment model.)))<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>What we need is to create a database of Sturgis-goers, see if we can account for some percentage of them, verify two weeks from now if they were catchers or non-catchers. I know of four people who are now at the rally. Could we organize a Friends-of-Sturgis online effort, create a data deposit site, where we could try to account for them? Then create a control group, ideally in the same age-bracket, of stay-at-homers, calculate a ratio of catchers to non-catchers.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>