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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> <a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a> <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> <br><b>>…</b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'> even motivated amateurs such as me, this signal we are puzzling over until our puzzlers are sore</span><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>That bike rally is only one of two things that looks like a huge systematic oversight on the part of the immunology community.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>We have seen covid case demographics by age, by race and so on, enlightening stuff, because it allows one to estimate one’s risk by looking at one’s own demographic. It determines whether one wants to invest long in Apple or have a seat, bend down, kiss one’s ass goodbye, adios amigos.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>OK well, we already know about the age skew, the old are far more likely to perish and all that. We get that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>One super important demographic or factor easily isolated is… nursing home or non-nursing home. Reasoning: Santa Clara County does offer that information, and to no one’s surprise… nursing home and long-term care facilities account for about half the fatalities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>OK so… you might say, OK no problem, we can deal. But if we do, that whole age-bracket by decade covid death graph looks a lot different. Reason: we see the 90s and 100s are really hammered. No mystery there. But if you take everyone you know in those age categories, many of the 90 somethings and damn near all, well all 100 and up that I ever heard of, live in a nursing home.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>OK then, no problem, we can deal. If we do, we realize that it doesn’t look neeeeearly so grim for our 80 somethings and 90 somethings who do not live in a nursing home. Reasoning: we damn well know that nursing homes are dangerous places. I do have first hand knowledge of those places, and I would cheerfully unknow what I know were that possible: I would intentionally become dumber on that particular topic. I have been there, hell I worked there. I heard, I saw, I remember: nearly eeeeveryone at the nursing home is old (even by my standards.) Nursing homes are dangerous. I can sugar-coat it if you wish, and if so, stop reading here, sincerely, spike.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>If you are still reading, I will tell ya, I would estimate your half life in a nursing home at about 4 years. If you end up in the Azheimer’s wing, we will just call you Ruth, short for Ruthenium 106 because your half life there is about a year if you are lucky, and hate to tells ya, good chance ya ain’t going to see age 106. Hey, I warned ya in the last paragraph.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>OK, so we know that nursing homes are dangerous places (it isn’t their fault (people go there when the can’t take care of themselves anymore.)) We know that nursing homes are older (even by my standards) people. We know that nursing home fatalities account for about half the covid OF and WITHs. My point: if we take those as a separate category (and we should) then it doesn’t look nearly as scary for the seniors among who do not live in one. It looks way scarier for the seniors among us who do live in a long term care facility.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>