<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><!--[if !mso]><style>v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK so here is the Santa Clara covid data page:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx">https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>They will give the bar chart, but not the source data, soooo… I just cut the grumbling and went across there, entering the data in a spreadsheet, which allows an amateur data geek to do some tricks with it, such as plot out cumulative fatalities separated by nursing home residents (in green) and the non-homers (in blue.)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>We get this:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=728 height=572 style='width:7.5833in;height:5.9583in' id="Chart_x0020_1" src="cid:image003.png@01D682DC.C3949940"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The theory predicts that as we approach herd immunity, then the blue trace should level out, but the green trace will not. Reasoning: if we count every confirmed case as a WITH or OF and all of it goes into the database as a covid death, even if they were WITH covid six months ago, and actually perished OF an enraged bride with a crowbar, if that hapless resident of the crushed skull was a confirmed case at any time, in he goes, rules is rules.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>By that reasoning, the nursing homers would perhaps not level out, but continue to rise indefinitely at not so different a slope. Reasoning: a nursing home is a soul-crushing revolving door.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Please note: there is a big difference between assisted living and a nursing home. In assisted living, those are really just small expensive apartments where nice young ladies come in every day and bring you food, take away your dishes, straighten out your bed, hey what’s not to like. But that isn’t a nursing home (granted there is one of those very nearby usually (but assisted living is not a nursing home (if you don’t know about that grim world, do go to a nursing home (after the danger is over (they don’t want you there now (when you get there, look, listen and learn.)))))<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Before you draw any conclusions regarding death rates of the homers vs the non-homers, note that the blue set is huge compared to the green set. What ratio? I would be surprised if it is less than 20 to 1. Any guesses on that? 20 ordinary proles for every homer? The above data is not scaled for that. The numbers of covid fatalities in each is pretty similar, but the blue set represents perhaps 20 times as many people.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Speculations or observations please?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>