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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Dave Sill <sparge@gmail.com> <br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] bikers again<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 11:13 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> >…So… if we postulate that covid is over… certainly the OF or WITH covid fatality rate would crater. Ja?<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/">https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…It's on the decline--not for the first time--but not over by a long stretch…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>I have seen that graphic 100 times, and it always brings to mind the comments of the Belgian leader. She claimed these nations’ covid numbers cannot be compared with each other because they are being counted differently. She is looking more right all the time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>>…How will we know when covid is over?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>>…The CDC will let us know. :-) -Dave <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>Ah, thanks Dave, I feel so much… em… better… now that I know that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>There was an article in the Washington Post which contained this comment:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:20.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>Unlike … protests in late May and early June that took place outdoors, the Sturgis gathering was attended by hundreds of thousands of people who “spent hours and hours in bars, tattoo parlors, casinos and other entertainment venues where much of the transmission occurred,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>OK, so ja, we know, bars, casinos, tattoo parlors, indoor rock concerts that sorta thing. We know. That’s what Sturgis is all about.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>In a similar article, not by Osterholm, an immunologist who studies this sort of thing was focusing on the Sturgis dataset. His motive was different from mine perhaps, but not really. We both want to know if Sturgis would be a super-spreader, I have biker friends who went, people I advised to stay back, people who urged me to come.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>OK so Sturgis wasn’t a super-spreader or apparently even a nominal spreader, but we were so caught off guard by that sub-spreader signal. A prominent “immunologist” didn’t seem to recognize it. But I did. Way down here in the nowheres, little microscopic tiny spike asked the obvious question: what is the case rate and fatality rate vs the expected value? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>My Extropian friends, big thinkers, I ask you the same question. Take the numbers from your county, or state, or anywhere where you have access to daily data. Scale it to the expected value for the month of August per half million please. Report your results. I already did Los Angeles county and Santa Clara county. Do use a county with at least half a million, for I don’t trust extrapolation up. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>LA: 40. Santa Clara: 12. Sturgis: 1.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>So this “immunologist” went on and on about this guy who apparently caught covid at the rally and died, how needless, how tragic, oh swoon, how could we have allowed this rally under such dangerous conditions as this, woe, woe is me, and so forth. Needless? Well hell, how could “we” have stopped that bike rally? Could we? Spoiler alert: nooooooo, we couldn’t. That’s what made this dataset special: no politics mucking up the results. How often does THAT happen? Has it ever before this?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>The “immunologist” demonstrated zero recognition, this “immunologist” failed to recognize the kind of signal that real immunologists (who are actually doing real immunology (correctly)) and even motivated amateurs such as me, this signal we are puzzling over until our puzzlers are sore: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>Why was that Sturgis case rate about half the expected value and the death rate about… ? … a tenth? Did covid mutate into something that most catchers never noticed?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>Anyone? Anyone?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;color:#2A2A2A'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>