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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Santa Clara County is the only place I can find Covid fatalities by day broken down by nursing home and non-nursing home. In the graph on this page, the homers are green, the non-homers are blue:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx">https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>We really distort the picture if we fail to take into account an important demographic that is very simple to answer: do you live in a nursing home or do you not live in a nursing home? If you do not know the answer to that question, you do.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK then, nursing homers are about half a percent of the US population but about 40% of the covid fatalities. If we ignore that distinction, we get a crazy-distorted picture of what is really going on.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>You may have seen covid fatality rates by age demographics, but were they scaled to the percentage of people in those age categories? They should be: there aren’t that many people who are 95 or older.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If you look at the data for covid fatalities and divide thru by percentage of the population in those decade brackets, you get data that looks like this:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=480 height=288 style='width:5.0in;height:3.0in' id="Chart_x0020_1" src="cid:image003.png@01D68454.A9D61FF0"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I scaled this to 1 for the 60 +/- 5 year decade.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The first odd looking thing is that people who are less than 55 have a 4 times higher risk than the 55-65 crowd, but not really: that column to the left is actually the sum of 5.5 decades: that 4 is the sum of 5 and a half age brackets, all of which are less than 1. So no, it isn’t higher chance of perishing of covid if one is younger than 55, but rather a higher chance that one IS younger than 55.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK then, this is scary if one is over on the right side of that graph.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I estimated that for every nursing homer, there are about 20 non-homers. My estimate was remarkably correct. Wiki claims about 1.5 megahomers in the USA, and there are about 330 megaproles, so about half a percent of the population accounts for about 40% of the covid fatalities.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK then. Once we take that into account and recalculate the numbers for non-homers, using the CDC age demographics for nursing homes, we get a graph that looks like this:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=480 height=288 style='width:5.0in;height:3.0in' id="Chart_x0020_2" src="cid:image004.png@01D68454.A9D61FF0"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Well, it is still better to be young. Being young is good for a lot of things. But the picture looks a lot different ja?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Once we take out and treat separately the nursing homers, most of whom are senior citizens, we see that if we use the 60+/- 5 crowd as a comparison, now instead of being 9 times more dangerous to catch covid while being 80+/-5, it is more like 2.2 times more dangerous to catch covid while being 80+/-5 years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>After one turns 85, if one is not in the nursing home, instead of being 22 times more dangerous, it is really about 4.2 times as dangerous to catch covid at that age.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clearly it is just dangerous to be over 95, but look at it this way: eeeeeverything is dangerous after age 95. A slip in the tub is dangerous at 95. I took a fall in the tub, it was nothing more than an owwww damn, and on with my business. But I was 17 at the time. At 95 that slip would be very dangerous. Sneezing is dangerous at age 95. Copulation can be fatal at that age (hmmm, OK bad example (copulation can be dangerous at any age (depending on who it is with.)))<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>In any case… if we fail to take into account that 40% of the covid fatalities are in a special-case half a percent of the population, we distort the picture in important ways.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>