<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"><div dir="ltr"><h1 class="title" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px none; list-style: none outside none; margin: 0px 0px 15px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-family: "Roboto Condensed", sans-serif; position: relative; color: black; font-size: 30px; line-height: 30px;">Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked to More Than 260,000 Coronavirus Cases, Economists Estimate</h1></div><div dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-more-260000-coronavirus-cases-economists-estimate-1530331?fbclid=IwAR2cHOANj-wtVmlFHnLxXu0-O-PHT-AY9EYy0_eqNjpYD41Z2bo4tp1bhMc">https://www.newsweek.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-more-260000-coronavirus-cases-economists-estimate-1530331</a></div><div dir="ltr"><br></div><div dir="ltr">Estimate by German economists. </div><div dir="ltr"><br></div><div dir="ltr"><blockquote type="cite">On Sep 3, 2020, at 6:32 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org> wrote:<br><br></blockquote></div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--><div class="WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in"><p class="MsoNormal">> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat<br><br><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">>…Big thinkers, think big please. If that’s it, what do we do next? If we need another test, what test? How?<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></blockquote></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">>…I doubt it's just sunlight.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Contributing factor? I fear it is wishful thinking on my part.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">>…Is the habitual long ride created a selection bias that this population is not as susceptible to the health conditions that would otherwise have been covid-exploitive?...<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">I sure woulda thought of that population segment is more susceptible rather than less. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">>…So is it the motorcycle that affords covid protection or something else that bikers have in common?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Hard to say Mike. I can see some pre-selection of people healthy enough to ride a long distance. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">But consider these numbers. The reports are coming in now, with what looks like 260 total infections at Sturgis.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">If we use about 50k new cases per day was a US average at that time. During the 7 day rally, it is reasonable to expect about 350k infections in the US. So any randomly chosen half million Americans should see about 500 infections in that week, ja? Reasoning: there are about 330 megaproles in the USA. Take half a million randomly chosen Americans, we should see about 500 infections that week, perhaps a few more, but close enough.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">We are seeing about 260 from the rally, about half the average of the USA.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">So if we should expect from any randomly-chosen half megaprole, we expect about one fatality per day. We are seeing one so far, for the entire month of August.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">This looks to me like the infection rate is half the expected value and the fatality rate is less than a tenth the expected value, even ignoring the age factor and the non-mask wearing.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Interesting aside: the way the mainstream media is talking about that one Sturgis fatality: oh swoon, such a tragedy, so unnecessary is that fatality. But they are not celebrating the other 10-20 who would have caught had they stayed home. Do their lives not matter? Far too many people cannot or will not go thru the calculation for how many cases and how many deaths we should expect in any random sample of half a million. Has anyone seen a news story celebrating that low case rate and low death rate?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div><span>_______________________________________________</span><br><span>extropy-chat mailing list</span><br><span>extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</span><br><span>http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</span><br></div></blockquote></body></html>