<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>…<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…Instead, I see in the paper they "conservatively" assume that even with no fatalities…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Hi Dylan, what if… they never do find enough covid fatalities among the attendees at Sturgis to match the average. We are told there was one so far, but we don’t know if he already had it when he arrived, which isn’t the fault of the rally, it was just something he was doing while the virus was replicating within. If they don’t find some fatalities in those attendees, we have a vaccine, no needles required.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>>…If their case model is anywhere near as sloppy as their cost model, the entire thing is suspect, but I can't speak to that. Maybe someone else here can attempt to pick it apart and see if it holds up….<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>This seems so simple to me, even a rocket scientist can understand it. They aren’t comparing it to the average and dividing by 700.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Take the US fatality rate and divide by 700, because about 1/700<sup>th</sup> of the US population went to Sturgis. Take the fatality rate in the US, about 800 a day dead. We should be seeing about 1000/700 or about 1.1 or 1.2 a day from those who attended. So far… 1. Total. 1 guy. Why do these bikers keep not dying?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Sure it is too early to tell, OK. But even if we take that into account, there should be fatalities from those who caught it before, went to Sturgis during the incubation period and perished afterwards, which might be what happened to the one feller. Ja?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>We need epidemiologists, not economists looking at this.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></body></html>