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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> spike@rainier66.com <spike@rainier66.com> <br><b>…</b><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><img width=300 height=370 style='width:3.125in;height:3.8541in' id="gmail-m_3731444908786707219Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.jpg@01D68B4F.A381FA50"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard" target="_blank">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></blockquote></div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>What we really need is a chart like this for the European nations and for the US jurisdictions (about 55 to 60 of those (I don’t know how territories work for disease control.))<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Reasoning: we heard some economists claim that the Sturgis rally can be (somehow) leveraged to 240,000 covid cases, and we know about (how many?) about 1% of the cases die. So… by their estimate and the 1% notion, then about 2400 deaths can be traced to the Sturgis rally.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>But the catchers at Sturgis was about half the average background catch rate (even ignoring advanced age) or even slightly lower than half, so we could use the same reasoning to argue that the Sturgis rally saved about 240,000 cases from happening, and saved about 2400 lives.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>That still only gets us about half way there to explaining the sudden drop in excess death rate from the most recent week reported, but I look at it this way: people die of suicide and crime and such. When one is out having fun on a motorcycle, wind blowing in one ear and out the other, clinging bitch back there whooping it up and having fun, those two are quite unlikely to be crime victims and suicide is far from their minds.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The rally ended a month ago. The bikers keep right on not dying. We still have no shrieking headlines about that, no scholarly papers from the epidemiologists on what an important lesson was learned and how we can perhaps take advantage of it until we get (if we ever get) a vaccine: get your ass out of that house, expose it to the sun, or failing that, as much skin as your modest allows, have some fun wherever you find it, but try to do so outdoors while the weather is warm and the sun shines bright: it is safer out there and might carry its own health benefits.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Sheesh even the mayor of New York City, who did EVERYTHING wrong, now gets this. He advised the proles to go outside. I agree. Now get the NY governor on board and there is progress:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1304815877230133249">https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1304815877230133249</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OUT! Out with you, I say! OOOOOOUUT!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>