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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#222222'> >…Ja it is a grim time: the data is making it clear enough we are going into a third wave and it is likely to be a bad one, damn. spike on extropolis<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:black'>>…</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>This might as well be on the other list. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>Agree. I see no reason why this can’t go on the main ExI list either. We are all in this together.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>>…Anyway - some experts predicted an autumn surge. Do you know on what basis they did? You are following this more than anyone, or at least more than most. Ideas? bill w on extropolis<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>Most epidemiologists predicted a big covid resurgence as soon as it turns frosty and people head back indoors. The regular flu and the other virus stuff always goes way up in October and November. We saw the virus sloshing around in South America this past July and August, so we knew those models were disturbingly prescient, oy vey.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>We know there is apparently conflicting data, but what overall signals appear to be rock solid, now that we are 9 months into the epidemic? I can suggest a few of the most obvious ones, the big no-brainers: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><ul style='margin-top:0in' type=disc><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>population density matters: higher is bad<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>covid travels more indoors than it does outdoors<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>vitamin D deficiency plays into vulnerability somehow<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>we aren’t at or even near herd immunity<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>survivability rates have gone way up and we don’t know why<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>testing is very unreliable and inconsistent<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>masks probably help but we don’t really know how much<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>social distancing is still probably our best defense<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>borders don’t stop the virus<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>Any others? What concepts do we now pretty much universally accept regarding covid? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>OK which ones are speculative but you think are probably true? Mine:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><ul style='margin-top:0in' type=disc><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>one is quite unlikely to catch outdoors from an infected person<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>students generally suffer from not being present on campus<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>students can still learn online, but the performance gap widens<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>sunshine somehow helps the immune system resist covid<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>businesses must stay open even if at reduced capacity<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class=MsoListParagraph style='color:#222222;margin-left:.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS"'>gatherings might or might not be super-spreaders, we don’t know why<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:#222222'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>