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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Ok well… the signal is clear enough now, and not surprising. We saw the covid cases go way up with the start of flu season. It looked like it peaked and was heading back down in November, but… the festival of Thanksgiving, family gatherings indoors, back up it went.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Peaked once again in the third week of December as the Thanksgiving peak ran its course, was heading back down, reaching a local minumum on 29 December, when new cases from Christmas family gatherings kicked in.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>New Years celebrations contributed perhaps, but new covid cases in the USA peaked on 11 Jan 2021 at 255k. Today they dropped below 70k for 7 day rolling average, so less than third of what it was six weeks ago and dropping.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Vaccinations might have been part of it, but with 20% vaccinated, it isn’t the driver.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Theory: it is indoor gatherings doing this, always has been, just as indoor gatherings spread the regular flu since always. This data isn’t hard to read. It’s hard to mis-read.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img width=644 height=468 style='width:6.7083in;height:4.875in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image002.jpg@01D70837.E05C5550"><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>