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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] vaccinations vs new cases<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:black'>from the new york times:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><h2 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:75.0pt;line-height:33.0pt;background:black;vertical-align:baseline;font-variant-numeric:inherit;font-variant-east-asian:inherit;font-stretch:inherit'><span style='font-size:21.0pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif;color:white;font-weight:normal'>The coronavirus is devastating Israel’s ultra-Orthodox communities. They represent 12.6 percent of the population, but 28 percent of infections.<o:p></o:p></span></h2></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Fri, Mar 5, 2021 at 9:26 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Even taking that into account and assuming the ultra orthodox uniformly refuse vaccination, that still doesn’t account for this signal.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If we make a simplified model and assume no vaccinations among ultras, then we have at least 56% of the not-ultras who have had two doses of the vaccine (this is as pessimistic an assumption as possible, for in reality more than 56% have at least one dose.) If at least 56% of the 87% of Israelis have 90% to 95% immunity, their new case rate should be lower than this, a lot lower. 72% of the new infections are in the not-ultra Israeli population.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></body></html>