<div dir="ltr"><div>My understanding is that Covid fairly often is being found to leave permanent damage to the bodies/organs of the young and middle aged people it infects, along with the elderly. The brain, the heart, lungs, etc., can suffer long-term harm. It is definitely an even nastier virus than it appears to be at first glance...</div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210401/many-show-long-term-organ-damage-after-covid">https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210401/many-show-long-term-organ-damage-after-covid</a></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Jun 12, 2021 at 4:04 PM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><br></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, Apr 23, 2021 at 4:32 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-US"><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">The covid pandemic was different than most in that the fatalities were concentrated in the elderly and people with a lot of other health problems, as opposed to something like the plague, which took people without regard to previous state of health. The plague would leave behind a smaller population whose overall health was about the same as before. But the covid pandemic can be seen to have left a surviving smaller population whose overall health is better and average age is younger.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Do check my reasoning on that last conjecture.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">The CDC has a remarkable data site which illustrates what I think we are seeing. Here’s the data from the past four years:<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm" target="_blank">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm</a><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><img style="width: 7.7395in; height: 2.25in;" id="gmail-m_-713862506116292286gmail-m_3918762188804238161Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:179ff2f9390772f6c1" width="743" height="216" border="0"><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Zooming in, notice what has been happening recently:<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><img style="width: 5.6979in; height: 6.125in;" id="gmail-m_-713862506116292286gmail-m_3918762188804238161Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:179ff2f93908546ed2" width="547" height="588" border="0"><u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">As the vaccine drives the population toward herd immunity, the blue bars will go away, but the real signal catching my attention is how far below the orange (average) line are the green bars. They are below the average mortality by a huge margin for the past several weeks. We can ignore the data from about the last coupla weeks because it takes a while to get all the reports processed, but even if we ignore those, the average mortality is down.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">During the pandemic, we know there were plenty of suicides, perhaps because of despondency over a failed business. I lost a young second cousin that way. But at some point, most of those who are susceptible to suicide have done it already, leaving fewer suicidal people in the general population.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Does not this chart illustrate that covid left behind a younger healthier population?<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> </p></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>### Indeed, this seems to be the case. Covid burned through nursing homes and hastened the deaths of hundreds of thousands of residents but only by a half year or so, given that the average resident life expectancy in a non-pandemic year is about 13 months. I expect that in the next year hundreds of thousands of elderly will make the transition to nursing homes, as this is the way of aging flesh, and the mortality rate will bounce back to the long-term trend line.</div><div><br></div><div>Rafal</div></div></div>
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