<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:comic sans ms,sans-serif;font-size:large;color:#000000">I read today of a rap concert where several people died. It could have happened to me: I was at the New Orleans dome for a concert: Wet Willie, Charlie Daniels etc. Last on the program was Greg Allman. When he came on the stage there was a mass movement in that direction and I was in it. Could not scratch your nose without getting permission to raise your arm. Felt sorry for those with claustrophobia. But no problems of getting stomped on, which is what must have happened in Texas. There were several heart attacks. Of course there was no way to distance oneself unless one was on the outskirts. I think being outdoors is safe. I think all of the above is repeating myself. If so, 'scuse please. bill w</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, Nov 7, 2021 at 11:59 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-US" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div class="gmail-m_-804034471967322703WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Do let me offer some BOTECs please.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Texas has a population of about 30 million proles. Their new covid case rate is about 3k a day so about one in 10k per day, new infection rate.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">The Travis Scott concert was attended by over 50k, and can presume (I hope) that at least some of the attendees had enough sense to not get in that deadly mosh pit, but let us round down for good measure, to about 50k and recognize that we should see on the average about 5 new infections a day from a crowd that size, ja?<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">I used this technique for first-estimate analysis of the Sturgis rally in 2020: take the average background infection rate, multiply by the number of attendees and the product is the expected value of new infections one might see if all these stayed home. I am getting about 5. These are generally young people (sheesh would hope anyone old enough to have any sense wouldn’t go into that crushing morass of raving protoplasm) so one might consider them better than average for resistance to virus, but we can assume away that advantage for good measure, ja?<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">I look at that and would estimate every infected person in that (literally) crushing mob would spread to a coupla dozen around her. So… I am thinking perhaps 60 cases traceable to Astroworld? I will stay with 60, even given that my 5 infections estimate is the expected infection rate per day. I used that to estimate havers, knowing that this is the background rate of daily catchers. I suspect this is a waaay underestimate of havers, but… I am willing to stay with the very conservative estimate of 60 new catchers traceable to Astroworld.<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">If there aren’t at least 60 new cases that trace back to this concert, then I must conclude that outdoor crowd events are not spreaders. If 60 or less, then the notion of outdoor social distancing and outdoor masking are irrelevant and silly. 60 new cases is my comfortable threshold, which is estimated as conservatively as I can justify. Other estimates?<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">Virus hipsters, ideas please?<u></u><u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><p class="MsoNormal">spike<u></u><u></u></p></div></div>_______________________________________________<br>
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