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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Tiffany Kary <tiffkary@gmail.com> <br><b>…</b><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] thoughts on omicron<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…Here you conflate a couple of things: It isn't the case that the ability of a virus to spread is inversely correlated to its severity. (In fact, with Covid-19 we saw that the Delta variant was both more contagious AND resulted in more severe illnesses because hosts shed more virions) What contagion <i>is </i>correlated with is the activity of the host -- and with Covid-19, you have a long incubation period where the host doesn't experience symptoms and can go around spreading before they realize they're ill -- and in fact some people never feel very sick at all, like patient zero in New Rochelle, and keep spreading for days -- that's part of what has made this coronavirus so successful compared to past related coronaviruses like MERS where patients progressed to being bedridden very quickly once symptoms occured.<br><br>>…In fact, once you start to think about how virus' ability to get around affects its evolution, here's an interesting but important side note: when people wear masks and social distance, it makes it harder for the virus to hop from person to person -- meaning the virus has <i>even stronger </i>motivation to keep its host alive and well...i.e. to be less dangerous. There are already signs of how this is affecting Covid-19 -- check out Figure 5: <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-02548-w">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-02548-w</a><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Cool thx Tiffany. This is the first post I recall seeing from you. Do tell us something about Tiffany Kary please.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></body></html>