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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Stathis Papaioannou via extropy-chat<br><br><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…I don’t think it was ever promised that the vaccine would be permanently effective….<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>It would be an interesting study to find what was written about it at the time.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>>… The closest comparison was with the flu vaccine…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>It would be analogous if not for the enormous social pressure to get these vaccines. Without mandates, those are comparable.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>>…which needs to be changed every year…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>That shoulda told us something very important Stathis. Flu virii mutate quickly. At some point we might need to rely on natural immunity from a relatively benign variant. Always the unreasonable optimist, I am seeing in the data indications that omicron might be that variant. It might also turn out that our best efforts at preventive treatment is chasing the wind.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>>… But even if the vaccines were not very effective, say if they only decreased the risk of dying from COVID by 10%, they would still be worthwhile, because 10% of many millions is still millions of lives saved.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal>-- Stathis Papaioannou<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The problem is that the risk/benefit model isn’t that simple. It doesn’t reduce to the percent chance of dying or the percent chance of going to the hospital. Agree that’s a big part of it. But those numbers are hard to estimate, partly because of our own legal system with regard to privacy of medical records. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I will make a confident prediction: for years to come, we will be seeing people blaming the covid vaccine for any childhood maladies and the usual general weirdness of children born to mothers compelled to take this vaccine against their will. For a large segment of the population, the vaccine will be blamed for everything that goes wrong medically, especially that goes wrong with children born after the mother was pressured to take these vaccines.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>