<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 27 March, 2022 1:00 AM<br><b>To:</b> ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br><b>Cc:</b> Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki@gmail.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] Michio Kaku makes 3 predictions about the future<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Sun, Mar 27, 2022 at 12:36 AM <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> wrote: <o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>It has been 20 years since I did the calculation, so I don’t recall what efficiency I was assuming on the solar power conversion.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>### Any situation where you use solar to produce liquid fuels will have atrociously low efficiency… Rafal<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I agree it will be down around 1% for many of those processes. The relevant comparison is to the most efficient plant to chemical energy as food or plant to liquid fuel. Using corn to food calories we might be able to hit 1%, but it would depend on how you count it. Reasoning: there is a lot of energy that goes into creating the fertilizer, drawing up the irrigation water, harvesting etc. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If we think of growing corn to distill alcohol to run the machines and using the alcohol to distill the alcohol etc, as far as I know, our best current processes are unable to get to breakeven. I chose corn because it is the most energy efficient crop I know of.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Using power directly is relatively efficient I agree, however it has disadvantages too. We will never have electric jet liners for instance, and electric cars have their limitations. Farm equipment is ill-suited for any power source which needs a long time to recharge, for during the short season, harvesters run 24/7. My farmer friends tell me the reason for that is there is no 25/8.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>On the other hand, given places like the Sahara, we can afford atrocious efficiency and still do what we need to do. That would be the ideal site to start making those 30 TWh of storage capacity, which I agree is needed. I stand with my prediction that a Sahara energy colony will predate and is prerequisite to any significant development on Mars.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>