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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> spike@rainier66.com <spike@rainier66.com> <br><b>…</b><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] vision for the next 50 years<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>>>…To which essay are you referring? <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>>…Sorry Brent I didn’t have time to finish (or even start) the essay. Consider the previous a kind of introduction. Circumstances intervened. Back later…spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK well dang. Looks like the circumstances are growing beyond my initial estimate: scouts need help. The essay will hafta wait, but it is just as well. In the next few weeks we will likely find out if humanity will nuke ourselves back a century or two. Our visions will likely be clarified soon, for better or for worse. May it be for better.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>In the meantime, I will mention why I think the chess test would be highly relevant to the question of why I proposed it to start with. Various types of recreational pharmaceuticals cause the devourer to perceive that her brain is performing at a much higher level than normal, but of course the same brain is measuring itself, so we would need some form of objective measure. I proposed the chess test as conclusive. If for instance, a brain was performing at 1000 times speed, that player would win every game she played. By my reasoning, that same brain would use so much energy it would quickly overheat.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I mentioned computer analysis of games. Below is an example of a recent game I played with a similarly-rated player. It was a clean game on my part with two great moves but no brilliancies. I spotted her one mistake and jumped her ass for the win. Note the numbers:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img width=285 height=422 style='width:2.9687in;height:4.3958in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image002.jpg@01D842BE.BC6477F0"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>So… why would this kind of data be relevant to the question at hand? <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If an effective nootropic exists and we could identify it, such a thing would be easy to measure with the software freely available. Even if it resulted in more blunders, if it also resulted in more brilliant ideas, it might be a reasonable tradeoff.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Chess is a far more useful proxy for the kinds of skills we are likely to need than a subjective notion of increased self-awareness. We see the kind of trouble Ukraine is having with the commies. Consider that soon Taiwan will have similar troubles with China. We can be sadly confident that the USA will fail to intervene, for all the same reasons we don’t in Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>From what I hear, Taiwan is the leading country in the world as far as microchip manufacturing and controls the entire market for the most advanced chips. She who makes the best computer chips rules the world. So… if China grabs Taiwan, China rules the world, at least until the USA builds some chip fabs and gets with the program on training actual engineers and scientists.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>OK then, consider our premier universities, such as Berkeley. Once considered the jewel in the crown of the scientific training centers in public education, Berkeley has heard the siren song in offering what I call lollipop degrees. OK spike, what are lollipop degrees please? Well, you know me. Use your imagination. Ja. Those.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Suppose things go badly in either Ukraine or Taiwan, or both. It is easy enough for me to imagine a sudden chance in attitude. A new administration is swept into power at Berkeley, and she calls the students together with a clear message: all you bastards taking the lollipop degrees, get a real major or get your asses out of here. We are now returning to our roots, when Robert Oppenheimer, Glenn Seaborg and Emilio Segre were here. We have a job to do, and it isn’t studying gender or journalism. It’s SCIENCE! TECHNOLOGY! ENGINEERING! MATH! If you aren’t one of those, then report to UC Davis for your lollipops. We aren’t giving those out anymore. STEM monsters welcome, the resta yas, out!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Do take the above paragraph with the appropriate sense of humor please, and my apologies to the UC Davis grads among us. I had fun writing it, nothing against Davis. The vision essay will hafta wait for now, but just as well. Anything any of us write today is likely to be outdated to the point of irrelevance in the next few weeks. May peace come to our conflicted planet soon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>