<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><br></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, May 4, 2022 at 5:59 AM BillK via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:</div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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Other sites are also starting to query the all-cause mortality statistics.<br>
The problem is that these effects take a long time to become evident.<br>
By which time it may be too late.<br><br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>### The problem is that the Covid vaccine studies were terminated very early, after only four months. These were the only placebo-controlled studies, or in other words, the only studies that are unlikely to be garbage. The unexpected mortality related to mRNA vaccines showed up in these four months and of course we don't know if it would have tapered off, persisted or even increased with longer observation.</div><div><br></div><div>All the other studies on Covid vaccines are observational, case-control and other low-confidence designs. This means we really don't know anything reliable about long-term effects and, since it is very doubtful there will be any additional placebo-controlled studies, we will never know. </div><div><br></div><div>One interesting tidbit of information from Dr Stabell-Benn is that the nonspecific mortality effects of non-live vaccines are more pronounced in girls. </div><div><br></div><div>The practical upshot of this all is a big shift in what I would recommend to my patients: </div><div><br></div><div>1. Strictly avoid non-Covid mRNA vaccines of all kinds unless conclusively shown in placebo-controlled extended studies that the vaccine has a clear net positive effect on all cause mortality. </div><div>2. Give preference to adenovirus Covid vaccines if you consider getting vaccinated.</div><div>3. Strictly avoid mRNA Covid vaccines if you are at low risk of Covid morbidity (i.e. generally healthy individual less than 50 years old)</div><div>4. Strictly avoid vaccination of children, especially girls, for Covid using mRNA vaccines.</div><div>5. Avoid booster Covid mRNA vaccinations until proven safe in placebo-controlled studies.</div><div><br></div><div>The above points are not meant as medical advice. I provide medical advice only to specific patient's whom I accept into my practice. Consult with your medical provider before making any decisions about prescription medical treatments.</div><div><br></div><div>The difference from my previous recommendations was that I did not differentiate between mRNA and adenovirus vaccines and I did not strongly advise against vaccination of children and healthy adults up to 50 years of age.</div><div><br></div><div>I am sorry for failing to scrutinize the available information on Covid vaccines before dismissing concerns about them. Naively, I thought that the pivotal vaccine studies would have a built-in all-cause mortality endpoint but it turns out they didn't. All they did was to look at Covid-related mortality and indeed the vaccines worked fine in that respect. Unfortunately, there are many situations in medicine where success in a particular endpoint (disease-specific mortality, improvement in a proxy measure of health) is completely overshadowed by concurrent effects on all cause mortality and other morbidity. Every pivotal study *must* have all-cause mortality as an endpoint, or else it's garbage.</div><div><br></div><div>There is a lot of garbage out there.</div><div><br></div><div>Rafal</div></div></div>