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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat<br><b>…</b><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>If we run with Adrian’s notion that the definition of intelligence matters, then we could create human-level intelligence to do stuff for us without causing the singularity.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…You seriously misquote me. The definition of the word "intelligence" matters to explaining how you wound up with seemingly contradictory statements, because you were using two different senses of the word. This has nothing to do with actual software…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Cool thx for the clarification.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Toss those out as they reach the bottom, say 50<sup>th</sup> place, replace them with a randomly chosen factor from the long list of possibly relevant metrics. Over time, the algorithm should learn which of the 50 metrics on the list of a few thousand observables are most relevant to predicting the outcome of whatever it is studying.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…This is not "human-level" intelligence, but instead using a robot to do a task so tedious that humans would struggle to do it - one of the advantages of robots…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>As I pondered it yesterday I realized this optimization process lacks one of the critical components we think of as human level intelligence: inventiveness. The software goes thru a few thousand observable metrics and calculates which are the top 50 most relevant ones. But we must give it the few thousand metrics from which to choose before it can begin. It doesn’t have the capacity to think of new ideas or new approaches.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Eventually we get a really competent boss pross that knows how to calculate a lot of things but can’t invent anything. I know plenty of humans in that category: highly competent people, intelligent, disciplined, great accountants for instance, but they are not inventors. I have never seen a CPA invent a new way to do accounting.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Regarding the quiet period in the Atlantic, finally we are getting some activity out there. According to the NOAA site there is about a 70 percent chance we will get a named storm in the next five days out of that red area shown in the map below:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php">https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=383 height=193 style='width:3.9895in;height:2.0104in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image002.jpg@01D8BAA2.34676810"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If it doesn’t happen in four days, then 2022 becomes the second quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1966 and if that storm doesn’t form for 6 days, then 2022 sets a record. I like setting records, but I suspect the drought in Europe is correlated with this lack of storms, so to hell with the record, I hope the sea will let er rip soon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>