<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 14 September, 2022 4:57 PM<br><b>To:</b> ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br><b>Cc:</b> Mike Dougherty <msd001@gmail.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] paradox perhaps<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 7:28 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Suppose you sign the mountaintop log book and note the previous visitor was 10 days previous…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed the book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Do explain please.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></blockquote></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…Seriously? You don't estimate a trend from a single data point.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…No wait, *I* don't estimate a trend from a single data point. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>>…I would assume time of year impacts average daily temperature which impacts the likelihood of visits to remote hiking locations. ...and now we're back to talking about the weather…<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Mike I was setting you up for the follow-on question. We know you can’t get a reasonable estimate from one observation. But this all leads back to the LIGO results. I am more interested in LIGO than I am in how often Sierra peaks are visited. The whole thing starts to get a bit quantum mechanicsey if you ask yourself: did your observation somehow impact the estimate? That’s where quantum mechanics ends up going: the observer does influence reality.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Mike one minor detail: it isn’t a trend but rather only one number based on one number. Is it possible to estimate a span between visits with *<b>any</b>* level of confidence (and if so, what confidence?) based on the time since the last visit?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></body></html>