<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
span.EmailStyle17
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>While climbing in the Sierras this week a fun thought experiment occurred to me. My companions and I were hiking from sunrise until almost sunset, covered about 15 miles, but never saw another human the whole time. We went to the top of Deadwood Peak, where we signed the log book. I noticed the date on the previous page was from ten days previous. OK, here’s the thought experiment, or possible paradox.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Suppose you sign the mountaintop log book and note the previous visitor was 10 days previous. With only that information, one might estimate that visitors come to the peak about every 10 days or so. But what if… you rigged a switch on the box which contains the log book which did nothing more than set an LCD display to that day’s date any time anyone opened the box? Then suppose you walk up, notice the display read 10 days ago. But you didn’t open the box. Rather you left without signing the book. Then what would you estimate the frequency of visit? Every 20 days?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed the book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Do explain please.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>