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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The common metric for storminess is ACE, accumulated cyclone energy.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The curve below is ACE this year and the average over the past 56 years since satellites.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Average for the ides of September is 70, but we are not yet at 30.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img width=563 height=419 style='width:5.8645in;height:4.3645in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image003.jpg@01D8C8FE.1EC1DEE0"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>All this has me pondering what happens to insurance rates if we go an entire season with zero or negligible storm damage. My guess is the rates will not go down at all. They will go up. Reasoning: calm years are very costly and dangerous, for they result in droughts in Europe, which cause crop failures, which our company also hasta pay for.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Conclusion: we can’t win. We can’t even break even.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>spike<o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>