<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class="gmail_quote"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;">Then the AI changes its algorithm - bill w</div></div></div></blockquote><div class=""><br class=""></div>If everyone is using the same AI then that wouldn’t work. No one can beat the market by doing what everyone else is doing. An AI trader would have to be private to be effective at trading stocks.<br class=""><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Apr 6, 2023, at 2:04 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><meta charset="UTF-8" class=""><div dir="ltr" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><br class=""><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Apr 5, 2023 at 10:01 AM Gadersd via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br class=""></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;"><div style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">Perhaps successful algorithms just don't last long.</div></div></blockquote><div class=""><br class=""></div>They can if kept secret. A good rule of thumb is if the fund/algorithm is public then it is no better than passive investing.<div class=""><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">I think my question was based on the assumption that the successful AI was available to everyone. What would happen then?</div></div></blockquote><div class=""><br class=""></div>Then the market would self-correct and the AI would stop trading well.<br class=""></div></div></div></blockquote><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;">Then the AI changes its algorithm - bill w</div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;"><div style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div class=""><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Apr 5, 2023, at 10:25 AM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:</div><br class=""><div class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">I read of stock market people who have a great year, advertise that fact, get lots of new buyers, and then experience regression to the mean.</div><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">Perhaps successful algorithms just don't last long.</div><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">I think my question was based on the assumption that the successful AI was available to everyone. What would happen then? bill w</div></div><br class=""><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 5:25 PM Gadersd via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br class=""></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;"><div class=""><div class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">What if an AI were developed that could accurately predict the </div><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">stock market?</div></div></blockquote><br class=""></div><div class="">Already been done. James Simons is a math PhD turned quant who started a hedge fund specializing in algorithmic trading. He made a pile of money for himself and his clients and eventually closed the hedge fund to outside investors as the technology can only scale to handle so much money at a time. In this case the fund became “secret” to preserve its profitability for the owner and his buddies.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Beating the stock market and being open are fundamentally mutually exclusive. More of one implies less of the other.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies" target="_blank" class="">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies</a><br class=""><div class=""><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Apr 4, 2023, at 6:07 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:</div><br class=""><div class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">What if an AI were developed that could accurately predict the </div><div style="font-family: "comic sans ms", sans-serif; font-size: large;" class="">stock market? I suspect that buyers and sellers would intentionally make the predictions wrong if they were known. If a person could make one but keep it a secret he would become very rich. Or not? bill w</div></div><br class=""><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 4:59 PM BillK via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br class=""></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">On Tue, 4 Apr 2023 at 21:56, Gadersd via extropy-chat<br class=""><<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br class="">><br class="">> I concur. In an adversarial environment it is almost never optimal from the perspective of one group to halt progress if the others cannot be prevented from continuing.<br class="">><br class="">> The AI safety obsession is quite moot as any malicious organization with significant capital can develop and deploy its own AI. AI safety can only achieve the goal of preventing low-capital individuals from using AI for malicious reasons for a time until the technology becomes cheap enough for anyone to develop powerful AI.<br class="">><br class="">> I am not sure how much good prolonging the eventual ability for any individual to use AI for harm will do. We will have to face this reality eventually. Perhaps a case can be made for prolonging individual AI-powered efficacy until we have the public safety mechanisms in place to deal with it.<br class="">><br class="">> In any case this only applies to little individuals. China and others will have their way with AI.<br class="">> _______________________________________________<br class=""><br class=""><br class="">Interesting thought, that 'friendly' AI means malicious use by the human owners.<br class=""><br class="">In the past, the main worry was AI running amok and destroying<br class="">humanity. So the 'friendly' AI design was developed to try to ensure<br class="">that humanity would be safe from AI.<br class="">But how can we protect humanity from humanity?<br class=""><br class="">Nations and corporations will be running the powerful AGI machines,<br class="">controlling economies and war machines.<br class="">Personal AI will probably have to be much less capable<br class="">in order to run on smartphones and laptops.<br class="">But there will be plenty to keep the population amused. :)<br class=""><br class="">BillK<br class=""><br class="">_______________________________________________<br class="">extropy-chat mailing list<br class=""><a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br class=""><a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br class=""></blockquote></div>_______________________________________________<br class="">extropy-chat mailing list<br class=""><a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br class=""><a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" target="_blank" class="">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br class=""></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></div>_______________________________________________<br class="">extropy-chat mailing list<br class=""><a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br class=""><a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br class=""></blockquote></div>_______________________________________________<br class="">extropy-chat mailing list<br class=""><a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br class=""><a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" target="_blank" class="">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br class=""></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></div></div></div>_______________________________________________<br class="">extropy-chat mailing list<br class=""><a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank" class="">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br class=""><a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br class=""></blockquote></div></div><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); 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