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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-ligatures:none'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-ligatures:none'> spike@rainier66.com <spike@rainier66.com> <br><b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, 28 October, 2025 11:25 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br><b>Cc:</b> spike@rainier66.com<br><b>Subject:</b> RE: not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-ligatures:none'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-ligatures:none'> <a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a> <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> <br><b>Subject:</b> not that rare earth<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>>>…A few days ago, I speculated that the invisible hand of capitalism would find alternative sources for rare earth elements…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>>…Upon hearing there was a “rare” earth “crisis” and of course never wanting to risk letting a crisis go to waste, I began looking at investment and profit opportunities related to “rare” earth elements…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>From there I go to a personal anecdote which is influencing my investment decision…spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>In December 2019, I was an early catcher of covid, before we knew what it was. Caught it from a phlebotomist who had just returned from visiting family in China. The staff at the hospital didn’t know what it was, but knew it didn’t match the genetic signature of any of the known flu strains. They correctly speculated that it was a new viral pneumonia, likely a mutation which likely came from China. They reasoned that a flu virus seldom goes trans-species, but when it does, it often comes from China and it is often really bad. Right and right.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>OK then. I caught that, they couldn’t do much for me at the hospital but they didn’t kill me trying. So after a few days I went home with an adios amigo and good luck. OK survived that. In about January and February of 2020, Tesla stock prices were going nuts. My neighbor was singing like the tro-lo-lo commie, and later that year he was walking like him too (because now he had money up the kazoo.) <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>At that time (spring of 2020) the area was awash in investment capital. In the parking lot of a strip mall where I get my dry cleaning done, they broke ground for a non-Tesla charging station. Telsa built out its charging facilities before the big surge in about 2020, but the non-Teslas need charged as well, so plenty of Tesla tro-lo-lo walkers put their buttload into non-Tesla charging stations. However… shortly after they fenced off a section of that parking lot and ripped out a huge section of pavement, covid started shutting down everything everywhere. So that project sat idle for about two years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>In around spring of 2022, I noticed stuff was happening once in a while, but by then we already knew (investors did) that the growth curve on non-Tesla EVs was slower than anticipated. Teslas were selling fairly well, but the Muskless carriage sales were lagging expectations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Progress kept being made on that charging station up there: 24 ports, half are 150 kW fast chargers, half are the standard 50 kW, twelve of each. Punchline: all the infrastructure is there, the permits are all in place, everything appears ready to go. But those chargers still have signs on them saying “coming soon.” That project started over five years ago. It still is not operational.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Now we are told we have these rare earth shortages because China cornered the market. But I also see what I think should be the biggest devourer of these materials, where the market is growing more slowly than anticipated, as evidenced by the idle capital not making money charging the local non-Muskmobiles. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Decision: don’t invest in rare earth refineries. Reason: the big REE devourers are growing more slowly than anticipated.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Hipsters, convince me otherwise please, for I am eager to think of a good excuse to invest it that sector. So far I can’t justify it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></body></html>