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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>A few days ago, I speculated that the invisible hand of capitalism would find alternative sources for rare earth elements. Well the invisible hand did so. There are other nations besides China which are advanced in chemical engineering, which have rare earth ore and which likewise have little concern over pollution or can deal with it effectively, such as Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia. The spot price of the critical earth elements reflects these alternative sources cranking up their facilities. China doesn’t have the whole world by the ass on the earth elements.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>The earth elements (we have learned they aren’t rare (their usage is rare)) experience caused me to think about an Arthur C. Clarke comment about contact between civilizations of vastly different levels of technology, which is always destructive to the less advanced civilization. The USA is not accustomed to ending up on the losing end of that deal, ever. It did to some extent in the car business, but that evened out after a time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Consider the earth elements. We were told China had all the refineries and technology on that, so even if the USA were to fire up an earth element mine and build a refinery, China could always undercut it and make it go bust. There is an alternative: open contracts with countries which don’t have all the expensive environmental regulations the USA has, particularly ones which need American currency. OK, so those materials aren’t so rare, and we can see from the sagging spot prices the speculators are dispirited. Well, not all the speculators. The earth element bears are having a marvelous and profitable time, the rare bulls are stampeding the other direction, at a loss.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Consider now Haiti. They are right here next to a tech giant, close enough that a small private plane can fly over with one fuel stop. It is close by, and very scientifically advanced. No matter what Haiti does, absolutely regardless of what Haiti does in the sciences, in technology, in any technology it chooses, it cannot compete with its giant tech-advanced neighbor. The existence of the giant tech-advanced neighbor is preventing Haiti from developing its own advanced technology, for regardless of what it tries to do, the USA is next door, already offering that product cheaper and more advanced. Any tech university that Haiti can build cannot compete with the existing tech universities nearby. Result: Haiti is completely dependent for technology, medicines, electronics, everything, and cannot climb out.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>The USA is not accustomed to being dependent on any other country, particularly a likely military adversary in the foreseeable future. Now we learn that the big threat from China’s iron grip on the earth elements was exaggerated. We can still get what we need to do what we need to do.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>There is a fun follow up to this post, to follow when I return.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>spike <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></body></html>