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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>OK sure, this site is all about the singularity being near, and OK sure, I am a big heretic for even entertaining the notion it might not be.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>But what if… the Singularity is a coupla decades off still, and Kurzweil was mostly right, but off a little, and the Singularity is still coming but not right away?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Then what? Do I get to sell Singularity insurance? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Because it appears to me that what we are calling AI might be a kind of false alarm: a big advance in smart search might make us think the Singularity is nearer than it really is.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Then what? What if… intelligence really is substrate dependent for reasons we don’t currently understand, or the Singularity depends on technology we don’t yet have.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Then we would predict the Singularity sooner than it is, ja?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Singularity thinkers come on, help me Obi wans, alla yas: might we be in a situation where we are fooling ourselves? OK then what please?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></body></html>