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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> John Clark <johnkclark@gmail.com> <br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Mon, Nov 3, 2025 at 11:59<span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span>AM <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com" target="_blank">spike@rainier66.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> </span><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>> Yesterday we were told the Mountain Pass facility had its environmental permits in place and would be producing all we need in two years.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…I wish them well…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>OK good. For a minute it sounded like you were cheering for China.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>… it remains to be seen if they have the skills to perform that delicate chemical process on an industrial scale that is economically viable…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Economically viable depends on the price of the product. Speculators will scale up the existing facility using known technology which has been in use for decades. It doesn’t look complicated to me: the same differential solubility, followed by fractional crystallization procedures they taught us in analytic chemistry half a century ago. It is time consuming with plenty of cycles, but nothing high tech. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…And in two years, three at the most, we will know if China or the US won the AI race …<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Ja but that comment explains your outlook to some extent, and mine. Perhaps you are a lot more certain that AI will somehow cause the need for REEs to go away or become irrelevant. You are thinking the Singularity is nearly upon us. I agree it might be, but it might not be. If it is, then none of this matters. If it isn’t, then all of this matters. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> </span></b><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>> we saw what happens when local grids rely too much on wind power: the huge cold front on 7-8 December 2017 caused shortages in availability in Texas.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…A two day shortage eight years ago is not sufficient for a blanket condemnation of wind power…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>It isn’t a blanket condemnation of wind power. It is a demonstration that wind power does not reduce the need for alternative power generation fueled by the old-fashioned combustion. In some cases, adding wind power may necessitate additional fossil fuel alternatives, for it increases demand for power, which must be there in the oddball case when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. Otherwise fatalities occur.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>… and I can't help but wonder if your dislike of it is just a reflection of He Who Must Not Be Named dislike of it….<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>The addition of political considerations only confuses an already wildly complicated engineering task.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…It's not just you t<span class=gmaildefault>wo, I predict that the power bills of everybody in the US are going to skyrocket in the next few years due to AI's insatiable demand for electricity…<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Oh the profit potential here, mercy.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>… the fact that the US has not increased its electric power generating capacity in over a decade…<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>See previous comment, and multiply by about e.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> </span></b></span> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>> Power distribution seems simple enough in theory, but it boggles the mind in actual practice.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…When I was in college the most difficult course I had was not the one on electromagnetic theory or the one o<span class=gmaildefault>n</span> the quantum mechanical nature of transistors, it was but one on how real world (not <span class=gmaildefault>the </span>simplified idealized example<span class=gmaildefault>s</span> seen in beginning textbooks) transformers, electric motors and generators affect large scale power distribution….<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Sheesh ain’ t that the truth. Rocket science is EASY compared to power distribution. My power class was so damn crazy hard, our professor told us the harsh truth: he wouldn’t hire any of us (he was a retired manager for Pacific Power.)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…I vividly remember the semi hysterical laughter that came from the entire class when they got their first look at the final exam questions. About an hour after that test I got the worst headache of my life, I don't think it was a coincidence.</span></b> <span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John K Clark<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>After I took Power, I decided to not go to graduate school. That class resulted in multiple injuries and serious fatalities. That class was so hard, some of the students lives were saved because they judged themselves too stupid to operate a loaded pistol on themselves. That class was so hard, failure was not an option, it was required.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>This would be cool, and probably already exists: a power grid management sim game, a good realistic simulation, where you hafta make all the investment decisions and technical calls on everything, do the design of the grid, perhaps with multiple players as managers of competing and collaborating adjacent power grids.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Does anyone here know if such a thing exists. One would think so.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p></div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></blockquote></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>