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<p>Maybe of interest!</p>
<p class="default-style">https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0624</p>
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Il 05/11/2025 03:31 CET spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org> ha scritto:
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">OK sure, this site is all about the singularity being near, and OK sure, I am a big heretic for even entertaining the notion it might not be.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">But what if… the Singularity is a coupla decades off still, and Kurzweil was mostly right, but off a little, and the Singularity is still coming but not right away?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">Then what? Do I get to sell Singularity insurance? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">Because it appears to me that what we are calling AI might be a kind of false alarm: a big advance in smart search might make us think the Singularity is nearer than it really is.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">Then what? What if… intelligence really is substrate dependent for reasons we don’t currently understand, or the Singularity depends on technology we don’t yet have.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">Then we would predict the Singularity sooner than it is, ja?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">Singularity thinkers come on, help me Obi wans, alla yas: might we be in a situation where we are fooling ourselves? OK then what please?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">spike</span></p>
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