<html xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> John Clark <johnkclark@gmail.com> <br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, 1 December, 2025 4:17 AM<br><b>To:</b> spike@rainier66.com<br><b>Cc:</b> ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] too late<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Wed, Nov 26, 2025 at 2:38<span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span>PM <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'> </span></i><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>> </span></i></span><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>In a sense, we can turn 235 uranium into any element we want or need, with current technology.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt'>For the last 80 years we've had the technology to turn lead into gold,</span></b><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> the only trouble is the gold you manufactured would be thousands, or more likely millions, of times as expensive as digging it out of the ground. </span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt'> </span></b><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>John K Clark<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Ja, I didn’t mean turn anything into gold by fusing nuclei. Rather we can mine anything we want from anywhere. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The critical insight is that the graph of cost vs ore quality is log linear. If you have ore with one part per million of something you want, it costs 1 oomblatt to refine it. But if the ore contains only 1 part per 10 million, it costs… 10 oomblatts? No. It costs 2. If that ore is so lousy it only has 1 part per hundred million? 3 oomblatts to refine it out. Log linear (for the relevant ranges of typical ore (eventually that log/linear breaks down, but it works for the relevant ranges.))<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The reason that is important: I read all this yakkity yak commentary on shortage of this, shortage of that, but it contradicted the evidence, which is spot price. The spot price of any commodity is the objective truth: it indicates not just the supply vs demand, for commodities such as raw material, it is the collective opinion of people with money about the future supply vs demand indefinitely. Reason: metal ingots store in a small space forever. Any investor can buy any amount, guessing at its future value.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>As metals go, silver is the big shortage vs demand material currently. There was a big hype on rare earths (because of perceived demand for use in magnets for wind turbines and EVs) but the spot price didn’t agree. During the biggest hype, the spot prices of those materials never reacted. The collective opinion of investors (who study carefully rather than be influenced by hyperventilating journalists) is that we have plenty of those materials and can get as much as we need. Alls ya hasta to do is look at the spot prices. That is the proof. The rest of it is just words, written by people who don’t know stuff.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>