<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><!--[if !mso]><style>v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}
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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Hi Brent, clarification and interesting side note: at Berkeley, there are two different undergraduate intro to AI classes. One is machine learning and the other is general AI. I had always thought of those as the same thing, but the machine learning class goes deeper into the details on the math, the matrix algebra needed to do machine language, etc. Once we understand the math, it will become clearer why the spot price of DRAM went crazy starting three months ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>The technology is now available to create an AI with everything embedded, onboard, rather than needing intercourse with the internet. This is of course critically important for signal-denied environments, bandwidth inadequacy, speed. The machine is trained on GPUs and the resulting solution matrices are stored on the device itself, which requires buttloads of DRAM. Supply rises gradually as DRAM demand goes nuts. Result: see graph below.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Fun aside: the military can squirrel away all the raw material it wants, but it cannot squirrel away DRAM as effectively, for the technology changes too fast, and the interface standards change. Consequence: the spot price of neodymium never changed much as the refinery was brought back online, while the price of DRAM is shown below as stock prices rise fast enough to get companies working capital to build new DRAM chip fabs as fast as they can slam them into the ground. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> I wrote:</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>>…I don’t recall any of us predicting that the price of DRAM would be the indicator of the singularity. </span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>spike</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> </span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><a href="https://datatrack.trendforce.com/Chart/content/4694/mainstream-dram-spot-price" target="_blank">https://datatrack.trendforce.com/Chart/content/4694/mainstream-dram-spot-price</a></span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><img border=0 width=264 height=214 style='width:2.75in;height:2.2291in' id="m_6601055270056103904Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.jpg@01DC6730.C4D1FEE0"><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal>_______________________________________________<br><br><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></blockquote></div></div></body></html>