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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org> <b>On Behalf Of </b>John Clark via extropy-chat<br><b>Subject:</b> [ExI] My prediction<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…I predict that 2025 will be the last normal year that any of us ever see. What do I mean by "normal"? I can't give a precise definition but four or five years from now when reflecting on the past everybody will agree with me, assuming that four or five years from now there will still be human beings around. </span></b><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#500050'>John K Clark </span></b><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Imagine proposing this as a bet on PredictIt or one of the other meme-futures betting sites. Challenge: think of some set of objective metrics which can be used as payout criteria for 1 Jan 2027. We need some way to determine that 2025 (and presumably all the years previous) were “normal” but 2026 is not.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>If we get those, I will be ready to bet 2026 will pay off for those betting “normal” for 2026. We can even play a non-monetary version of it, here among friends. The prize will be my everlasting respect, or lasting until I forget, whichever comes first. My prediction: 2026 will be normal. 2027 will be normal too. But we need an objective way to determine who wins.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Ideas anyone?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></body></html>