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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org> <b>On Behalf Of </b>John Clark via extropy-chat<br><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, 3 January, 2026 2:47 AM<br><br><b>Cc:</b> John Clark <johnkclark@gmail.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] My prediction<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>I will make two more predictions:<span class=gmaildefault> </span></span></b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…1) The idea of U</span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black'>niversal <span class=gmaildefault>B</span>asic <span class=gmaildefault>I</span>ncome <span class=gmaildefault>w</span>ill start to become mainstream<span class=gmaildefault> but Mr. I Lowered Drug Prices By 1600 Percent </span>will not embrace the idea<span class=gmaildefault> because if he doesn't even understand how percentages work then he certainly can't understand</span> the gargantuan economic and<span class=gmaildefault> social </span>disruption<span class=gmaildefault>s</span> that AI <span class=gmaildefault>w</span>ill produce</span></b><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Clarification: this prediction is already wrong, for the notion of UBI has already started to become mainstream. Do offer an objective metric please.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…2) As a result of #1 on January 1, 2027 the popularity of the current president will be at its lowest level that any president has had in the last 50 years….<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Did you mean by the RPC average? How will the winner of this bet be determined unambiguously please?<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> </span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>>…</span></b><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>By the way, I woke up this morning and learned that we are now at war with Venezuela. Venezuela?! <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>That was a short one. The citizens are being urged to “take to the streets” but it is unclear what good that will do, for the US military forces have already achieved their goal and left.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…</span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> I'm sticking with my prediction. </span></b><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#500050'>John K Clar</span></b><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>k<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John, we must find a way to determine if you were right. We only have strictly comparable data going back 22 years. As I understand it, RCP determined a standard by which polls could be included in their average in 2004 and have not changed since then. So we really only have two other comparables, 43 and 44 (POTUS 46 didn’t have a second term so there is no comparable data available.) There were polls before 2004, but we need a way to average several polls in order to make any sense of them.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>I propose we use RCP average and use the data we have. Since there are only three who are in the race, I would have offered you 66 RC cents for a Not share. However you seem very sure of yourself, so I will only offer you (or anyone else) 50 cents for a Not on John’s second wager. Come on, it’s just a game, and we are among friends here.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#500050'> </span></b><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></blockquote></div></div></div></body></html>