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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces@lists.extropy.org> <b>On Behalf Of </b>John Clark via extropy-chat<br><b>Cc:</b> John Clark <johnkclark@gmail.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] My prediction<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>I will make two more predictions:<span class=gmaildefault> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…</span></b></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>1)</span></b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>The idea of U</span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:black'>niversal <span class=gmaildefault>B</span>asic <span class=gmaildefault>I</span>ncome <span class=gmaildefault>w</span>ill start to become mainstream</span></b><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>….</span></b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>That idea became mainstream thousands of years ago, but we have no objective measure available. The idea has been mainstream as long as there has been anything we think of as government. The idea has never been in the majority as far as I know, but the idea has been mainstream. No one knows how to make it happen or when the idea started to become mainstream.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…2) As a result of #1 on January 1, 2027 the popularity of the current president will be at its lowest level that any president has had in the last 50 years….<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>We only have comparable objective data going back 27 years on that.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/trump-obama-bush-second-term">https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/trump-obama-bush-second-term</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>We can use that data however, betting sites are using it:<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8477/What-will-Trump's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Jan-7-(Two-week-length)">https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8477/What-will-Trump's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Jan-7-(Two-week-length)</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Generally they only go out two weeks. Bets a year away don’t get much interest because of inflation. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Although the two bets do not directly relate to each other, you could reword your bets to something like this: <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Congress will pass a bill providing UBI to all US citizens but POTUS will veto it in 2026 (bet 1) and the current POTUS’ approval rate as measured by RCP will drop below his two predecessors (bet 2.)<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Your chances on bet 2 are good: I would estimate that one will sell for about 70 cents now. Bet 1, meh, 2 to 3 cents at best. If bet 1 is at 2 and bet 2 is at 60, I wouldn’t buy either of them. I would buy a Not on bet 1 for 98, and a Not for bet 2 at 30 however. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>What would you pay? We can make it play money: RespectCoin or something.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> </span></b></span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></blockquote></div></div></div></body></html>