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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> John Clark <johnkclark@gmail.com> <br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] My prediction<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>On Sat, Jan 3, 2026 at 7:38 AM <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>>>… </span></i></span><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>the idea has been mainstream. No one knows how to make it happen</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…Well somebody had better figure out a way to make <span class=gmaildefault>UBI</span> happen<span class=gmaildefault> and do so <u>mighty damn quick</u> if they don't want a horrific bloody revolution on their hands ….<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>OK so think of a way to word a wager which is devoid of subjective terms, ideally something which has numbers in it such as is done on the meme betting site PredictIt. Numbers (as measured by a disinterested site such as RCP is good. I would bet against a horrific bloody revolution if we derive some kind of objective metric to determine if a horrific bloody revolution is occurring or has occurred. I would pay about 90 RespectCoin cents for the meme no bloody revolution and no UBI in 2026, which pays one RC dollar if both of those conditions are met. Before we can proceed, we need an objective metric on bloody revolution however.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>> </span></i></span><span class=m-2945888874395439020gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>you could reword your bets to something like this:</span></i></span><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'> </span></i></span><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>Congress will pass a bill providing UBI to all US citizens but POTUS will veto it in 2026</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…That won't work. Congress will never pass such a bill …</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John K Clark<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>OK, counter-propose something which will work. Word it in such a way that we can make bets on it with play money, RCs. Sounds like you are betting against UBI going mainstream, or it already is mainstream, depending on how one defines the term mainstream. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>The notion of defining predictions using only a defined set of objective metrics is something we learned back when our own ExI guy Professor Robin Hanson proposed the notion of Ideas Futures back in the mid 1990s. Oh we loved that game. The play money version was so much fun.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>