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--></style></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> John Clark <johnkclark@gmail.com> <br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 7 January, 2026 4:39 AM<br><b>To:</b> spike@rainier66.com<br><b>Cc:</b> ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] My prediction<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>On Tue, Jan 6, 2026 at 5:12 PM <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>></span></i><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>></span></i></span><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>… If it wasn't for the electoral college Al Gore would have been president and we would not have had the Iraq war….</span></b><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><br> <span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>> </span></span> <i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>John recall your prediction in 2016 about the risk of nuclear war.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…I certainly understand why you don't want to talk about the Iraq war….<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>I don’t mind talking about it: I am agin it. I am even more agin unlimited nuclear war. After the fact we know that the probability of that horrifying world-shattering event was zero with the leader who won the 2000 election, but we don’t know what it was had it been otherwise. Conclusion: the outcome of the 2000 election saved the world from risk of nuclear war.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>… and I recall what I said in 2016 very well<span class=gmaildefault>, I said I didn't expect a nuclear war but if He Who Must Not Be Named became president the probability of it happening would be larger (but still less than 50%) than if Hillary Clinton became president….<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>That prediction was wrong. We know after the fact that the probability was zero point zero the way it came out, but non-zero had it gone the other way.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…As for today, I still don't think there will be a nuclear war but the probability of it happening would have been less if </span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Kamala Harris<span class=gmaildefault> or even Joe Biden was president….<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John your track record on those predictions is not good sir.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>> </span></i></span><span class=m-4620523153264587946gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>Can we define the term “man” please? </span></i></span><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…Oh so you wanna play the define game, that's usually a sign that somebody is losing an argument….<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>{8^D Thanks for that candid admission. Our society is living an absurd self-parody by pretending we can’t define gender while simultaneously pretending we can define race. One can only imagine what this nonsense looks like from the point of view of people well outside our cultural mainstream. We surely appear to have lost our collective minds.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…And if</span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> the <span class=gmaildefault>E</span>lectoral <span class=gmaildefault>C</span>ollege was eliminated<span class=gmaildefault> and somebody in Wyoming was unhappy that they were living in a state that had little political influence then all they would need to do is move to California….<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>They can do that now. People living in Wyoming individually control a larger fraction of a state government. In the easily foreseeable future, most of the heavy lifting in government will be carried by states. So if individuals want more influence on state and national government, the logical thing to do is move to Wyoming.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>>…<span class=m-4620523153264587946gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>California has 18 times</span></b></span><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> as many electoral votes as Wyoming, but California has 67.3 times as many people as Wyoming. And both states get <u>exactly the same number of senators</u>. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>That’s right.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…I have asked the following question before but I have never gotten a straight answer….<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>...If Wyoming was as liberal as Massachusetts and California was as conservative as Mississippi, would you still be defending the electoral college and the way the number of senators are assigned to each state with such vigor?<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Of course. That marvelous system protects minorities. You agree it is a good thing to protect minorities, ja?<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John I think you get too tangled up in the common right vs left paradigm at the expense of right vs wrong. Everything isn’t right vs left. Libertarian is neither right nor left, but it is on the right side of right vs wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>>…</span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>If AI does advance<span class=gmaildefault> as fast as</span> I think it will<span class=gmaildefault> then He Who Must Not Be Named popularity will be in the toilet and so he won't be able to cancel the November 2028 election as he would like….</span></span></b><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> </span></b></span><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John K Clark<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Being popular doesn’t mean a POTUS has the authority to cancel an election. Those are done at the state level, intentionally. Then the Supreme Court does what it does, the military hands over the nuclear codes, all of this independent of the guy who is no longer POTUS on20 Jan following the election. The system thought of the possibility of a POTUS refusing to leave office and has a way to deal with it John. If a POTUS could hold the office, he would hold the office. The system works.<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></div></body></html>