<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><a href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-ai-superforecasters-are-here" style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:transparent"><font face="tahoma, sans-serif" size="4"><b>The AI Superforecasters Are Here</b></font></a></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style=""><font size="4" style="" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b style="">The following is a quote from the above: </b></font><br></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font size="4"><b><span style="font-style:italic;color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:"SF Pro Display",-apple-system,system-ui,"system-ui",Inter,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol"">"</span><span style="color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:"SF Pro Display",-apple-system,system-ui,"system-ui",Inter,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol""><i>If the trendline does keep going, things start changing quickly. Finance gets transformed first, as human stock analysts go the way of horse-drawn carriages and kerosene lamps. The opportunity for smart humans to consistently make money on prediction markets likewise dries up - instead, bots duel other bots for the privilege of collecting money from dumb sports fans. </i>[...]<i> </i></span><span style="font-style:italic;color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:"SF Pro Display",-apple-system,system-ui,"system-ui",Inter,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol";background-color:transparent">I asked the AI superforecasters the probability of a US-China treaty to slow down AI, enforced by cryptographic verification of data center activity. FutureSearch said 1%; Preseen, 2.2%."</span></b></font></div></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><font size="4"><b><span style="font-style:italic;color:rgb(54,55,55);font-family:"SF Pro Display",-apple-system,system-ui,"system-ui",Inter,"Segoe UI",Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji","Segoe UI Symbol";background-color:transparent"><br></span></b></font></div><div class="gmail_default" style=""><div style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(80,0,80)"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><font size="4">John K Clark    See what's on my list at  </font><font size="6"><a href="https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Extropolis</a></font></font></b></div><div style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(80,0,80)"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><br></font></b></div><font size="1" color="#ffffff">7uz</font><br class="gmail-Apple-interchange-newline"></div></div>