<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>On Wed, Aug 5, 2026 at 2:56 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:</div></div><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">He has pretty thoroughly demonstrated he's not going to use it to<br>
invest in anything.<br></blockquote><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"></div><div>
</div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
At this point, I'd assume that either he has in fact lost the key, or<br>
he thinks it's in his best interest to act as if he has, and that<br>
either way all those Bitcoins he has effectively don't exist.<br>
<br>
Find a way to demonstrate it on prototype scale. </blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Sigh, 100 tons-per-day gasifiers using plasma torches for heat have been done 20 years ago. The main difference here is using induction instead of high maintenance plasma torches. I am thinking of 2500 tons-per-day for a prototype. That's one part in 30 for what would be needed for Los Angeles. The AIs guess such a prototype would cost $200 to $300 million.</div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">
<div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"></div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small">At some point, a demonstration will not work because of scaling laws. Small devices have unfavorable surface to volume ratios. A 160 MW prototype is expected to leak at least 8 MW.</span></div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small"><br></span> </div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small">I know the Bitcoin founder is a real long shot. But I don't know of anyone else who has the depth of pocket for this project. Well, Elon does but making contact with him is probably as hard as reaching Satpshi.</span></div><div>
<div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"></div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small">At some point, a demonstration will not work because of scaling laws. Small devices have unfavorable surface to volume ratios. A 160 MW prototype is expected to leak at least 8 MW.</span></div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small"><br></span> </div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small">I know the Bitcoin founder is a real long shot. But I don't know of anyone else who has the depth of pocket for this project. Well, Elon does but making contact with him is probably as hard as reaching Satpshi.</span></div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-size:small"><br></span>
</div>
</div>
</div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"> It doesn't need to<br>
be profitable on prototype scale, but it does have to demonstrate<br>
actual production. Theorycrafting is fine, but you will not get that<br>
scale of money (any time in the next several years and this side of<br>
the Singularity, at least) until after you have done a physical<br>
demonstration.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Would this project be useful after the singularity? Or would every home have a recycle machine?</div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Near as I can tell, every part of this project exists at a high TRL. The most exotic part is the shaff gasifier with a pool of 1600 deg C iron in the bottom. It would draw 160 MW to keep it hot. There are melting furnaces up to perhaps 30-40 MW. </div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">You are right to be concerned about it working. A huge waste to aviation fuel project in Reno went bust a few years ago. <a href="https://www.greenairnews.com/?p=8361" target="_blank">https://www.greenairnews.com/?p=8361</a> It is a really interesting story. I talked to Jim Stonecipher a few weeks ago. I would love to have him as a reviewer or advisor. <br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<br>
I suggest identifying some trivial, tiny piece that you can do on,<br>
say, $100K-200K, and proposing that miniscule starting piece to the<br>
Department of Energy SBIR program </blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Maybe. This is related to renewable energy and you know how any project related to that is doing. But then, maybe I should see if Trump would give me a billion *not* to do it.<br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">when their Phase I submissions<br>
reopen later this year. Once you've done that, then the DOE might be<br>
willing to put in $2M for a slightly less tiny demonstrator under<br>
"Phase II"...and after you've done that, then Phase III might open up<br>
to do one of the gasifiers you mentioned. It doesn't matter that you<br>
think you have all the plans right now; outside of military funding<br>
(and often even then), you generally have to do that kind of scale-up<br>
proof.<br>
<br>
It's slow, it sucks, but the alternative to prototype-then-scale-up is<br>
begging for the rest of your life (or until you give up) for funding<br>
and never getting a dime. </blockquote><div><br></div><div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Maybe. I have two or three organizations that have been bugging me to take funding from them. But I doubt they would actually part with a dime considering this project does not have a CEO, a management team, or even a corporate structure..<br></div></div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">What your idea is, is irrelevant: you could<br>
solve the energy crisis forever and there still won't be funding from<br>
anywhere if you need $1B+ before you show any results at all.<br>
<br>
This is the Extropians list. Effective action is called for. Don't<br>
bang your head on paths that have been thoroughly proven to not work.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">I did that, worked for ten years or more on power satellites. Finally gave up when the best I could do was 3 cents per kWh and PV solar got down to 1.35 cents per kWh. The other problem was it took $60 B to get it started. By comparison, SolarSyngas is a pittance. <br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<br>
On Wed, Aug 5, 2026 at 4:44 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat<br>
<<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br>
><br>
> I really doubt the originator of Bitcoin follows this list, but if he does, I would like to get in touch. Assuming he has not lost the key, he has about $80 billion in Bitcoins.<br>
><br>
> The SolarSynga project needs money on that scale. It would take around 30 gasifiers at maybe $250 million each to process all the trash LA generates.<br>
><br>
> Keith<br>
> _______________________________________________<br>
> extropy-chat mailing list<br>
> <a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br>
> <a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br>
<br>
_______________________________________________<br>
extropy-chat mailing list<br>
<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a><br>
<a href="http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat</a><br>
</blockquote></div></div>
</div>
</div>