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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>A few weeks ago I noted that 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was starting out unusually quiet. Someone, I think it was Keith, pointed out that it is because of the super El Nino conditions. At the time, I noted that there had been no Atlantic hurricanes. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Today I stepped back thru the data, one year at a time on Wikipedia back to 1960, which offers a great summary of the hurricane season. Here’s last year:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>There you see the first hurricane of the year was Erin, which reached hurricane strength on 15 August of last year. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Going back thru the years to 1960 (the first year we had a weather satellite giving us unambiguous data) I found there is a three way tie for the latest first Atlantic hurricane of the year, Humberto in 2013, Gustav in 2002 and Diana in 1984, each reaching hurricane strength on 11 September of those years. Tropical storm Edouard probably would have formed the first hurricane had it not accidentally collided with Louisiana, which weakened and dissipated the storm before it could ruin our chances at a (post 1960) record for the latest in the year first hurricane. Who put Louisiana in the way? I’ll sue!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offers a forecast good for about 7 days out (hurricanes take about that long to form, once they spot a tropical depression.) Today’s the third of September. Seven days from now is 10 September. Tomorrow we may find out if 2026 will break the record currently held as a three-way tie, 1984, 2002 and 2013. We may not find out tomorrow: it is possible for a hurricane to form in less than seven days. But it will be enough notice that we can makes bets and such.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>I hope 2026 breaks the record, because I don’t like records being held as a tie, and also because I don’t like weather-related death and destruction.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>