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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Keith Henson <hkeithhenson@gmail.com> <br><b>…</b></span><o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>>>>…The reason is rooted in evolutionary psychology … bleak future…<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>>>So true. However… In 2016, 2020 and 2024, the USA was at peace and the economy was prosperous. In all three election years, the incumbent party was turned out. <o:p></o:p></p></div></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>>…The US was not uniformly prosperous. There were large parts that were relatively worse off then they had been previously….<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>If we go with the notion that increasing nonuniformity in prosperity causes the voters to turn out the incumbent party every four years, that makes sense and is a useful insight for betting purposes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>As an added bonus, it is good for the country to switch mainstream parties every four years for the executive branch, every two years for both houses of congress, ideally with the two houses of congress controlled by opposing parties.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> >… If we call on bleak future wartime memes, we can’t explain 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>>…Sure we can. if you look at the parts of the country that voted MAGA, they were relatively depressed….<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>However they were bringing back a POTUS who had no new wars during his first term. His opponent was got the USA involved in a coalition to defend Ukraine. The bleak future = war notion would suggest the poorest sections of the country would go to the other guy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span></span><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>>…There is a lot of noise in such things as elections. EP gives ;you the general drift of social movements without an exact correlation to elections. Keith<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Ja. I need a theory to guide me in betting. EP at least in this case is too general to make money on it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p></blockquote></div></blockquote></div></body></html>