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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> John Clark <johnkclark@gmail.com> <br><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, 10 October, 2026 1:58 PM<br><b>To:</b> spike@rainier66.com<br><b>Cc:</b> ExI chat list <extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [ExI] Trump suggests letting Iran ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>On Sat, Oct 10, 2026 at 4:18<span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span>PM <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>> </span></i></span><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>In that same timeframe, you also predicted that if Mrs. Clinton lost, it would increase our risk of nuclear war with Russia. Now we know it decreased the risk: it went from some unknown but not zero risk down to zero.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Spike…<span class=gmaildefault> that's not the way probability works. </span> </span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal><span class=gmaildefault><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>> </span></i></span><i><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif'>To clarify, are you suggesting libertarian voters swung the 2016 election by voting for Johnson? </span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Yep.</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John K Clark<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>So by that reasoning, had every undecided voter who stayed home because they didn’t have a strong preference had instead voted for Clinton in perfect unison, then she would have won, ja? I agree with that. However… that’s not the way probability works. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>If you want to make the argument, you must recognize that those with libertarian views would have split both ways, as the rest of the voters did. Most of those voting for Johnson live in non-swing states, so they don’t count at all. They aren’t stupid or hypocritical. Those who were undecided were not stupid or hypocritical or both. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>However, if you wish to hold the opinion that the Johnson voters are stupid, hypocritical or both, very well, go ahead. You obsess about a speck in another person’s eye, while you have a beam in your own eye.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Meanwhile, you still don’t understand why your party lost two of the three most recent POTUS elections. You suggested the winner’s hypnotic personality, mesmerizing I think you said. OK, so of course that notion is absurd as all hell. He won in spite of his personality. Adrian came way closer to a reasonable explanation. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>But we will offer you another swing at that ball. You need to understand this, otherwise your party will lose again, and I don’t (necessarily) want that. I have no strong preference of one mainstream party over another. They look alike from my point of view, but there is an advantage in political power switching back and forth between the two mainstream parties.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>John, please, why do you suppose… your party lost two of those last three contests? Think hard please.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>spike<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>