<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:transparent">On Tue, Oct 13, 2026 at 4:57 PM <<a href="mailto:spike@rainier66.com">spike@rainier66.com</a>> wrote:</span></div></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><span style="font-size:13.5pt"><font face="georgia, serif" style=""><i><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">> </span>it worked, some.  It was better than nothing.  But plenty of people caught after getting the mRNA vaccine, and plenty transmitted after getting the vaccine. </i></font></span></blockquote><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif"><br></span></b></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b style="">There you go again peddling medical misinformation that is not only wrong<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">,</span> it is <span class="gmail_default" style=""><u>LETHAL</u>!</span></b></font><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif"><br></span></b></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b style=""><span class="gmail_default" style="">==</span></b></font></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font face="Tahoma, sans-serif" size="4"><b><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></b></font></div><div class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b style=""><span class="gmail_default" style=""><u style="">ME</u>:</span></b></font><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b> In the USA at the height of the Covid pandemic how much did getting the recommended two shots of the mRNA vaccine a couple of weeks apart reduce the risk of getting Covid and how much did it reduce the risk of death?</b></font></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif"><br></span></b></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><p><font size="4"><span class="gmail_default" style=""><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><u><b>GPT</b></u></font></span><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">: "</span>At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, the original two-dose mRNA vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna <b>substantially reduced the risk of both getting COVID-19 and dying from it</b>. But there is an important distinction: the vaccines were more consistently effective at preventing severe disease and death than at preventing infection itself.<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> </span><span style="background-color:transparent">The exact percentages depend on when you measure them, which variant is circulating, and how long it has been since the second dose.<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> </span></span><span style="background-color:transparent">T<b>he best estimates</b></span><b><span class="gmail_default" style="background-color:transparent;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> </span><span style="background-color:transparent">of getting infected</span><span class="gmail_default" style="background-color:transparent;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> with Covid is about </span><span style="background-color:transparent"> 90% lower</span><span class="gmail_default" style="background-color:transparent;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> after taking the vaccine, the risk of dying from it was about  </span><span style="background-color:transparent">90–96% lower.</span><span class="gmail_default" style="background-color:transparent;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> </span></b></font></p><p><span style="background-color:transparent"><font size="4">In a CDC study published in June 2021, researchers followed nearly 4,000 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential workers. After two mRNA doses, the risk of infection was 91% lower than among unvaccinated participants. This included infections without symptoms.</font></span></p><p><font size="4">CDC data covering 13 U.S. jurisdictions from April through July 2021 found that <b>unvaccinated people had substantially higher age-adjusted death rates than fully vaccinated people.</b></font></p><ul><li><div><div><p><font size="4"><b>April 4–June 19: the</b> <b>death rate among unvaccinated people was 16.6 times higher.</b></font></p></div></div></li><li><div><div><p><font size="4"><b>June 20–July 17: it was 11.3 times higher.</b></font></p></div></div></li></ul><p><font size="4">Those correspond to approximately 94% and 91% lower death rates, respectively, among fully vaccinated people.<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">"</span></font></p><p><b style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large;background-color:transparent">==</b></p><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b>And thanks to Donald's Luddite health secretary Robert Kennedy Junior th<u>e deaths continue</u>, this time from measles:</b></font></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b><br></b></font></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">==</span><br></b></font></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b><br></b></font></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><u>ME</u>:</span></b></font><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b> In the USA how does the current measles epidemic compare with past outbreaks of the disease and what could be the cause of this increase?</b></font><div><div><div><p></p></div></div></div></div><div class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><u>GPT</u>: "</span></b></font><font size="4"><span style="background-color:transparent">The </span><span style="background-color:transparent">U.S. </span><b><span style="background-color:transparent">measles </span><span style="background-color:transparent">outbreak </span><span style="background-color:transparent">is </span><span style="background-color:transparent">now </span><span style="background-color:transparent">much </span><span style="background-color:transparent">more </span><span style="background-color:transparent">serious </span><span style="background-color:transparent">than </span><span style="background-color:transparent">the </span><span style="background-color:transparent">outbreaks </span><span style="background-color:transparent">Americans </span><span style="background-color:transparent">experienced </span><span style="background-color:transparent">for </span><span style="background-color:transparent">most </span><span style="background-color:transparent">of </span><span style="background-color:transparent">the </span><span style="background-color:transparent">past </span><span style="background-color:transparent">25 </span></b><span style="background-color:transparent"><b>years</b>. </span><span style="background-color:transparent">As </span><span style="background-color:transparent">of </span><span style="background-color:transparent">October </span><span style="background-color:transparent">8, </span><span style="background-color:transparent">2026, </span><span style="background-color:transparent">the </span><span style="background-color:transparent">CDC </span><span style="background-color:transparent">reported </span><span style="background-color:transparent">4,080 </span><span style="background-color:transparent">confirmed </span><span style="background-color:transparent">cases </span><span style="background-color:transparent">in </span><span style="background-color:transparent">2026</span><span style="background-color:transparent">, </span><span style="background-color:transparent">already </span><span style="background-color:transparent">far </span><span style="background-color:transparent">above </span><span style="background-color:transparent">the </span><span style="background-color:transparent">2,289 </span><span style="background-color:transparent">cases </span><span style="background-color:transparent">reported </span><span style="background-color:transparent">during </span><span style="background-color:transparent">all </span><span style="background-color:transparent">of </span><span style="background-color:transparent">2025. </span><b><span style="background-color:transparent">The </span><span style="background-color:transparent">principal </span><span style="background-color:transparent">explanation </span><span style="background-color:transparent">is </span><u><span style="background-color:transparent">declining </span><span style="background-color:transparent">vaccination </span></u></b><span style="background-color:transparent"><b><u>coverage</u></b>, </span><span style="background-color:transparent">especially </span><span style="background-color:transparent">in </span><span style="background-color:transparent">communities </span><span style="background-color:transparent">where </span><span style="background-color:transparent">measles </span><span style="background-color:transparent">can </span><span style="background-color:transparent">spread </span><span style="background-color:transparent">rapidly </span><span style="background-color:transparent">among </span><span style="background-color:transparent">people </span><span style="background-color:transparent">who </span><span style="background-color:transparent">are </span><span style="background-color:transparent">not </span><span style="background-color:transparent">immune<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">.</span></span></font></div><div class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><span style="background-color:transparent"><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></span></font></div><div class="gmail_attr"><font size="4">For historical perspective, before measles vaccination became widespread, the United States experienced an estimated 3–4 million infections every year, with tens of thousands of hospitalizations and hundreds of deaths. The current outbreak is nowhere near that pre-vaccine burden, but it is <b>an extraordinary reversal after measles was declared eliminated from continuous domestic transmission in 2000<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">.</span></b></font></div><div class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><b><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></b></font></div><font size="4">The proportion of U.S. kindergartners with the recommended MMR vaccination has fallen from 95.2% in the 2019–2020 school year to 92.4% in 2025 2026.<b> Measles is extraordinarily contagious:</b> around 90% of susceptible close contacts may become infected, <b>so about 95% coverage is generally needed to stop sustained measles transmission</b>. The national average also conceals local communities with much lower coverage. <b>Vaccine hesitancy is one plausible contributor to the decline in coverage</b>.</font><div class="gmail_attr"><br></div><font size="4">The proportion of U.S. kindergartners with the recommended MMR vaccination has fallen from 95.2% in the 2019–2020 school year to 92.4% in 2025–2026. <b>About 95% coverage is generally needed to stop sustained measles transmission</b>. The national average also conceals local communities with much lower coverage.<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> </span>The current resurgence is not evidence that the vaccine has stopped working; it is evidence that protection breaks down at the community level when too many people remain unvaccinated.</font></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><font size="4"><br></font></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><font size="4">Measles is not simply a harmless childhood rash. <b>It can cause pneumonia, brain inflammation, and death</b>.<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> </span></font><span style="background-color:transparent;font-size:large">The good news is that <b>the MMR measles</b></span><span class="gmail_default" style="background-color:transparent;font-size:large;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><b> </b></span><span style="background-color:transparent"><b style="font-size:large">vaccine is highly effective: two doses are about 97% effective at preventing measles.<span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">"</span></b><font size="4"> </font></span></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><font size="4"><br></font></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><font size="4"><span class="gmail_default" style=""><b style=""><font face="tahoma, sans-serif">John K Clark</font></b></span><br></font></div></div>