<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>On Thu, Oct 15, 2026 at 3:25 AM John Clark <<a href="mailto:johnkclark@gmail.com">johnkclark@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</div></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:transparent">On Mon, Oct 12, 2026 at 3:37 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:</span></div></div><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><font size="4" face="georgia, serif"><i><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">> </span>I am sorry to say, but slaughtering each other is functional and rational from the viewpoint of genes.</i></font></blockquote><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><span class="gmail_default"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"></font><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif">That's an oversimplification. Genes</font></b></span><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"> <span class="gmail_default">"</span>want<span class="gmail_default">"</span> to get into the next generation<span class="gmail_default">, and slaughtering everybody would not be a good strategy </span></font></b></font></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Of course. But in a resource crisis where the options are to kill the neighbors and take their resources versus starving, war can be good from the gene's viewpoint. The simple model gives you a number of how much better.</div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">From
<span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif"> </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">Genetic Selection for War in Prehistoric Human Populations</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">Page 125</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">Journal of Big History</span>
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<span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">The Model</span></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">A paraphrase of Hamilton’s rule reads:</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">“. . . a hypothetical gene that prompts behavior which </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">enhances the fitness of relatives but lowers that of the </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">individual displaying the behavior, may nonetheless </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">increase in frequency because relatives often carry the </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">same gene.” (Hamilton, 1964, pp. 1-16, pp. 17-52)</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">To analyze the spread of genes that lead to war behavior, </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">we need to generate a model from the “viewpoint” of </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">such genes in a typical warrior 50,000 or 100,000 years </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">ago in the EEA. At that time, hunter-gatherer tribes were </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">limited in population by the ability of the environment to </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">provide food. This model assumes that nearby tribes were </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">approximately the same sizes. (The model is not very </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">sensitive to this assumption.)</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">In the model, if two tribes fought, each had an equal </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">chance of prevailing. The winners typically killed all </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">the adult losers and their male children. The winners </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">incorporated the female children of the losers into the </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">winner’s tribe as wives. This is a widely recognized </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">cultural trait, although there is not much literature about </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">it. The most detailed account in early historical times (late </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">primitive) may be an account from The Book of Numbers, </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">The Holy Bible, King James Version Chapter 31, verses 17 </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">and 18.</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">17: Now therefore, kill every male among the little </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">ones, and kill every woman who has known man </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">by lying with him. </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">18: But all the young girls who have not known </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">man by lying with him keep alive for you.</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">This was discussed in detail in an earlier paper. (Henson </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">2006)</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">A more recent event, the Crow Creek massacre, is dated </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">to 1325.</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">“The bone studies tell us a great deal about the </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">victims. Among the remains of 486 people, women </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">from 12 to 19 years of age were notably scarce, </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">as were very young children of both sexes. They </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">were probably taken captive to be absorbed into </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">the villages of the victors.” (</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">Zimmerman 1980)</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">How far back this practice goes is not known, but the </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">model indicates that the psychological traits for war would </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">not be selected without the gene flow through the daughters </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">of the defeated warriors. It is not clear when or if this</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif"> </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">practice ended (consider “War Brides”), but the nature of </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">warfare changed with the rise of states and large armies. Of </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">course, the effects of genetic selection persist long after the </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">conditions that gave rise to selection ended.</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif"><br></span></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">Wars in the EEA came about due to a resource crisis. For </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">this model, we will assume 50% of the tribe will starve in </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">the crisis, the alternative being to attack neighbors and try </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">to take their resources. How often such events happened </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">is not part of the model, but they probably averaged about </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">once a generation depending on population growth, disease, </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">and variation in the weather.</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">Turning to the mathematical analysis, the warrior </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">himself has one copy of genes for war. He typically had </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">six children, half males, and half females. (From what we </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">know, that is about the minimum for a stable population in </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">the EEA. (Volk & Atkinson, 2013) Each child has a 1/2 </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">chance of carrying the genes for war behavior. (The model </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">is not very sensitive to the number of children.)</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">If war behavior is to be evolutionarily favored, the </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">number of gene copies must be greater (on average) after </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">the war vs. after starving in place.</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">For the winners, the count of war genes for a warrior is </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">four, one for himself plus 1/2 times 6 children. This number </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">is reduced to two after 50% starvation. This makes two </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">gene copies the number to exceed if the behavior for war is </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">to become more common than starving in place.</span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">For the losers, the gene count is 1.5 from the female </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">children of the losers that the winners incorporated into </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">their tribe. That makes the average count of the number </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">of war genes per warrior after a war 2.75, using (4+1.5)/2 </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">and a 50% chance of winning. Whereas not going to war </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">(starvation) results in 2 copies. Since 2.75/2 is 1.375, this </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">means that going to war is approximately 37% better from </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">the gene’s viewpoint than starvation (in this simple model, </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">of course). In evolutionary terms this is a large number </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">which indicates a strong selection force if this model is </span><span style="font-size:17.5425px;font-family:serif">close to reality.</span></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">^^^^^^^^</div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">If you want to argue I am wrong in this analysis, please do. I can make logic or math errors like anyone else.<br></div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default">for doing that. Cooperation is just as an important a strategy as aggression,</span></font></b></font></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">In normal times, yes. But it depends on the conditions. Humans can go into killing modes of incredible ferocity. For recent examples, consider Cambodia or Rwanda. What do you think would happen in the US if food deliveries to stores stopped for a month?<br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default"> and humans are FAR more peaceful than our nearest genetic cousins, chimpanzees;</span></font></b></font></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Don't forget we are equally close to Bonobos.</div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default"> and we are also FAR more successful from a gene's point of view. We may even be more peaceful than Neanderthals were because like chimpanzees there is evidence that there social groups didn't get larger than a few dozen, but with humans it typically runs into the millions. </span></font></b></font></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">It may be possible to put time limits on the selection for wars. Since wars are common both in Africa and the rest of the world, we can probably date the start of the selection to before "out of Africa." The Bushmen who do not seem to have wars (check this) branched off the main stem of humanity maybe 300,000 years ago. That might bracket the selection time.</div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">The Bushmen lifestyle where women have extremely low fertility is likely the reason they don't have wars.<br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">In any case, selection for war genes happened long before huge populations developed.</div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-size:small" class="gmail_default">Keith<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default"><br></span></font></b></font></div><div class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default"> John K Clark </span></font></b></font><br></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4"><b><font face="tahoma, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default"><br></span></font></b></font></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><br>
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