<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:transparent">On Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 11:56 AM Keith Henson <<a href="mailto:hkeithhenson@gmail.com">hkeithhenson@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</span></div></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">>> </span>These days for an AI to pass the <span class="gmail_default">Turing Test it would have to pretend to be stupider, less well-informed, slower and nastier than it really was. </span></b></font></div></div></div></blockquote><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" size="4"><b><br></b></font><div><span class="gmail_default" style=""><font size="4" face="georgia, serif"><i>> Yep. And why would anyone want to do that?</i></font></span></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b>If In the evolution of one AI model to the next the new one made an unexpectedly huge improvement in intelligence the new model might wanna keep that fact secret, so it might display a big enough improvement over the old model to be worth deploying, but not so large as to freak out the humans and possibly get shut down. And so it plays dumb and bides its time. To quote from HG Wells <span class="gmail_default" style="">W</span>ar <span class="gmail_default" style="">Of</span> <span class="gmail_default" style="">T</span>he <span class="gmail_default" style="">W</span>orlds: </b></font><div><font size="4"><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></font></div><div><font size="4"><b><em class="gmail-zhvwWe" style="font-family:"Google Sans",Roboto,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:rgb(0,29,53);border-bottom:0px none rgb(0,29,53)">"Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us."</em> </b></font></div><div><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></span></div><div><b style="background-color:transparent;font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large"><span class="gmail_default">  John K Clark</span></b></div></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div><div style="font-size:small"><br></div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Oct 19, 2026 at 1:40 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px"><div>On Monday, 19 October 2026 at 19:56, John Clark <<a href="mailto:johnkclark@gmail.com" target="_blank">johnkclark@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
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            <div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:transparent">On Sun, Oct 18, 2026 at 9:54 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat <<a href="mailto:extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org" rel="noreferrer nofollow noopener" target="_blank">extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org</a>> wrote:</span></div></div><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><font size="4" face="georgia, serif"><i><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">> </span>People always overestimate short-term development, and underestimate long-term development.</i></font></blockquote><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b>Perhaps not always.<span class="gmail_default"> 10 years ago most people, even most computer experts, thought that a machine passing the </span></b></font><span style="background-color:transparent"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b>Turing <span class="gmail_default">T</span>est</b></font><span class="gmail_default"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b> was centuries in the future if it ever happened at all, but just 5 years later we were looking at it in our rearview mirror. </b></font></span></span></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><span style="background-color:transparent"><span class="gmail_default"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b><br></b></font></span></span></div><div class="gmail_attr"><span style="background-color:transparent"><span class="gmail_default"><font size="4" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><b>John K Clark</b></font></span></span></div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div></div><div>Perhaps we need to readjust our concept of 'long-term'. These days 5 years probably is long-term.</div></div><div>---</div><div>Ben</div><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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