[Paleopsych] electile dysfunction

[Steve Hovland]

I think the folly of Bush's policy in Iraq will
become apparent quite soon, with Fallujah
being the tar baby.

Lynn may know the numbers better, but
modern armies have a lot of support troops.
Even with outsourcing of some functions,
the combat troops in Iraq may be somewhere
around 75,000.

40,000 are being committed to the battle
of Fallujah that will begin shortly, leaving
every other part of Iraq more vulnerable to
enemy attack.

The troops marshalled in Baghdad must be
a tempting target to the other side.  There
may be a battle in Baghdad even before they
try to go to Fallujah.

Emphasize "try to go to Fallujah."  The odds
are they will be attacked while going there,
and every supply column during the battle will
also be subject to attack.

In urban warfare, every bomb you drop creates more
hiding places for the defenders.  The attacking
solders have to stand up and run toward an
enemy who is mostly concealed in piles of
rubble.  The terrain heavily favors the defenders,
even if they are outnumbered.  Nothing has
really changed since Stalingrad.

I think the battle may still be raging on inauguration day.

We are also on the way to a fiscal shipwreck.
The combination of tax cuts and deficits, which may 
be too esoteric for the mind of the average citizen,
is a real problem.  The Euro may well emerge
as the world's reserve currency.

I see no reason to assume that Bush will lead
the way on energy, so that will get worse.  People
now see it every time they fill up on gas or pay
their utility bill.  Eventually we will see it in the
cost of everything as old inventories produced
with lower-cost energy are used up.

If Roe vs. Wade is repealed, then the lower- and
middle- class women who voted for Bush because 
of his stand on abortion will be the ones who
will die from back-alley abortions.

Many other middle- and lower-class voters
who voted for Bush on values, but against
their own economic interests, will get sick and
die for lack of national health care, their private
benefits having expired.

Eventually the pain may get bad enough to
wake some people up.

Steve Hovland
www.stevehovland.net


-----Original Message-----
From:	Michael Christopher [SMTP:anonymous_animus at yahoo.com]
Sent:	Wednesday, November 03, 2004 12:10 PM
To:	paleopsych at paleopsych.org
Subject:	[Paleopsych] electile dysfunction


>>We can no longer afford to think of the Democrats 
as the alternative to the Republicans.<<

--If you want a third party to succeed, you'll need
someone young, wise and charismatic. I'm not sure
someone like that can be found who wouldn't be torn
apart in the primaries. It takes a lot of money to
win, and only the Democrats have the means to compete
with Republicans in the media. I'm pretty sure there
will have to be a Democrat in 08 before an independent
party can get into the debates and act as a balance.
As long as war and security issues take precedence
over alternative fuels and new ideas for domestic
policy, Greens don't have much chance on the Federal
level. But if Bush's approval rating sinks low enough
in his second term (I think without Kerry to draw
fire, Bush will have trouble justifying the results of
his policies) there may be room for an independent
candidate to get enough of the vote to start competing
with the two major parties. But if someone like McCain
ran in 08, he'd probably have an easy win. Hopefully
that would come with a shift in the GOP to marginalize
"culture war" Republicans and favor traditional
economic conservatives. Either way, any real change in
American culture is going to have to be done without
government help. We can no longer expect someone
decent to get into office and fix everything, so we'll
have to focus energy on local elections and grassroots
change. 

If it were all up to me, I'd push a states' rights
agenda, and allow conservative areas to try out their
ideas and discover why they don't work. Allow liberal
states to decriminalize gay marriage and marijuana,
see if the sky falls or not. That would strengthen the
country against the fragmenting influence of the
"culture war" and relieve some of the paranoia. If
that means Alabama banning abortion and women
streaming out of the South, so be it. Let the men
fight over the virgins, and let everyone else have the
freedom to do what they want.

Michael



		
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