[Paleopsych] Robotic Nation Evidence 2004.8
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Robotic Nation Evidence 2004.8
http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004_08_01_roboticnation_archive.html
[None for September yet. Maybe Marshall Brain has dropped this feature.
And I'm late myself getting around to going to his site.]
News of the developing Robotic Nation
8.31.2004
More examples of Moore's Law
Many examples of Moore's Law this week:
* [6]AMD demos first dual-core processor - "The chips -- which
contain two processor cores and 1M byte of Level 2 cache for each
core -- use the same 940-pin socket used by AMD's single-core
Opteron processors manufactured with a 90-nanometer process,
according to information posted on the AMD's Web site. This
compatibility will allow HP, Sun Microsystems Inc. and IBM Corp.
to incorporate dual-core Opterons in existing systems that are
designed for the Opteron, AMD said."
* [7]Intel's 65nm chip will make laptops go further - "Intel has
built a fully functional 70Mb static random access memory (SRam)
chip with more than half a billion transistors, using 65nanometer
(nm) process technology."
* [8]Computer hard drives perform better, last longer with novel
polyester lubricant
* [9]NIST Unveils Chip-Scale Atomic Clock - "The heart of a
minuscule atomic clockbelieved to be 100 times smaller than any
other atomic clockhas been demonstrated by scientists at the
Commerce Departments National Institute of Standards and
Technology (NIST), opening the door to atomically precise
timekeeping in portable, battery-powered devices for secure
wireless communications, more precise navigation and other
applications."
* [10]96 Processors Under Your Desktop - "A small Santa Clara-based
company, Orion Multisystems, today unveils a new concept in
computing, 'cluster workstations.' In October, you'll be able to
choose between a 12-processor unit for less than $10,000 and a
96-processor system for less than $100,000. These new systems are
powered by Efficeon processors from Transmeta and are running
Fedora Linux version 2.6.6."
The last one is interesting. It echoes the "workstation boom" in the
1980s, when players like Sun, Apollo, DEC, IBM, etc. battled it out
for the scientific desktop with UNIX workstations.
This machine is not quite as impressive as it sounds at first.
According to [11]this page, an Efficeon is only about one-quarter as
fast as a Pentium. So this machine might "only" be as powerful as a
20- or 25-Pentium workstation. The reason for using the Efficeon,
despite its relative slowness, is its low wattage per calculation. If
you put 25 Pentiums in a box, they would consume 3,000 or 4,000 watts
-- it would blast you out of your office with the heat, and you would
need to run a special 30-amp circuit to plug it in. For comparison, a
typical electric clothes dryer uses [12]4,000 watts. By using Efficeon
chips, at 8 watts per chip, the whole machine uses "only" as much
power as a blow drier.
The thing that is interesting about this machine is the amount of
horsepower it makes available in an "off-the-shelf" package. If
history repeats itself, then in ten years this is the horsepower that
a "normal" $500 desktop machine will have available. Along with
[13]many terabytes of storage space.
See [14]Robotic Nation for details.
// [15]permalink
8.29.2004
Robotic mobility
[16][sitnlift_main_photo.jpg]
This is a good example of the unusual forms robots can take in the
future:
[17]GM Mobility - Sit-N-Lift
From the article:
GM is the only automotive manufacturer in the U.S. to offer a fully
motorized, rotating lift-and-lower passenger seat to help people
stay on the move. Sit-N-Lift(TM)(1) provides convenient access to
the right-hand second-row seating area. Operated by a handheld
remote control, the power bucket seat rotates, then extends out of
the vehicle and lowers for easy entry and exit. This
dealer-installed accessory called Sit-N-Lift(TM)(1) is available
on 2001 through 2004 extended wheelbase models of Chevy Venture,
Pontiac Montana and Oldsmobile Silhouette.
Imagine hospital beds that automatically load, roll and bathe
patients. Imagine sofas and chairs that rearrange themselves, come
when you call them and that move themselves for easy cleaning. And so
on.
// [18]permalink
8.26.2004
Robots and jobs
[19]Rise in offshoring breeds job insecurity among U.S. workers
From the article:
"With an expanding array of jobs vulnerable to being moved offshore,
many Americans will migrate to such fields as health care and
education, which require face-to-face contact, the experts
predict."
Automation isn't just allowing individuals to do more work than
they once did, it's eliminating the need for many of those
individuals in the first place. Technology is wiping out whole
categories of lower-wage jobs such as supermarket cashiers,
airport ticket agents and bank tellers.
This is exactly the point of [20]Robotic Nation.
If this transition happened slowly, that would be one thing. The
problem is that the transition is going to happen very quickly -- much
faster than we've seen before. That speed will cause a great deal of
turmoil.
People will try to transition to "health care and education", but then
those fields will be automated as well. See for example:
* [21]Robotic Education
* [22]Robots and Teachers
* [23]The arrival of the robotic hospital
* [24]More Hospital Robots
Every aspect of our economy will be automating simultaneously. Retail
stores will be eliminating millions of employees. The tranportation
sector will be turning to robotic cars, trucks and planes. And so on.
See [25]Robots taking jobs for a fascinating list.
See [26]Robotic Nation for details. See [27]yesterday's census numbers
for statistical evidence of the trend.
// [28]permalink
8.25.2004
Robotic insects at war
[29]Australian scientists turn to insect swarms for new generation
weapons
From the article:
Alex Ryan, a mathematician with the government's defense Science and
Technology Organisation, heads a team that is working on computer
software recreating swarm behaviour for use on the battlefield.
The goal is to develop swarms of small, expendable unmanned
vehicles that can carry out missions in ground, sea and aerial
environments too dangerous for humans.
It is easy to imagine a number of scenarios:
* A bank robber walks into the bank's lobby, and 250 robotic insects
jump out of the woodwork and encase him.
* A protestor shouting at a presidential candidate out of turn is
encased by 250 robotic insects who inject him with tranquilizers.
* A famous person does not have body guards, but instead has a swarm
of robotic insects hovering overhead ready to descend at a
moment's notice.
* On a battlefield, a C-130 airplane releases 1,000,000 robotic
insects behind enemy lines, and the insects find and poison every
enemy combatant.
* Those same 1,000,000 robotic insects could do the same thing at a
riot, or at a peaceful demonstration.
* And so on...
// [30]permalink
8.24.2004
Robots in Japan
[31]Land of the rising robot
[32][story.robot.jpg]
From the article:
Hiroshi Kobayashi, one of Japan's leading robot scientists, says he
believes the concept of a moving humanoid robot will become
invaluable in the future.
His own designs include a muscle suit to help physically disabled
people with movement, and his robotic receptionist will be on the
market within the next year.
Also:
Yoichi Takamoto, CEO of Japanese robotics business TMSUK, says his
company is working closely with the Japanese fire service to make
its "Hyper Robot" become a key member of a fire fighting crew.
// [33]permalink
8.23.2004
Humanoid combat robots in Japan
[34]Combat robots wow crowds
From the article:
A robot fighting contest that draws huge crowds in Japan each year has
highlighted sophisticated technological trends in robotics,
experts say.
Also:
Richardson adds that the fighting machines highlight the trend for
making robots more robust. "There's a definite trend in the last
few years to have more fault-tolerant humanoid robots," he says.
"At some point they are going to fall over, so make them so they
don't get damaged and can get back up again."
The article links to two videos, including [35]this one (3.90MB MPG)
and [36]this one (3.48MB MPG). See also [37]Robotic Security.
// [38]permalink
NASA robot rides a Segway
[39]NASA engineers refine Robonaut
From the article:
Robonaut B, a robot built with human-like hands and television camera
eyes, now has the option of rolling around Earth on a modified
two-wheeled Segway scooter or grappling the International Space
Station with what researchers call a "space leg."
"We built Robonaut B to be portable," said Robert Ambrose,
robonaut project lead at NASA's Johnson Space Center in
Houston,Texas. "It really exceeded our expectations."
The second in the robonaut series, Robonaut B is a self-contained
robot controlled remotely by a human operator. Future incarnations
of the mobile robot could prove vital companions for astronauts
living and working on the moon and in space.
"We're looking at other lower bodies for the moon, with a
four-wheel or six-wheel base," Ambrose said. "We're not going to
take a Segway to the moon, but it's a good way to emulate the idea
on Earth."
See also [40]Robots and NASA and [41]Robotic repair.
// [42]permalink
8.22.2004
Smallest robotic helicopter
[43]Mini helicopter unveiled in Japan
[44][xinsrc_510801191638625276610.jpg]
From the article:
The latest tiny flying robot has been unveiled in Japan, armed with
top-of- the-range high-tech gadgetry.
Seiko Epson launched the FR-II, which is lighter than an empty
drinks can [12 grams]. It carries a digital camera, and, unlike
other flying robots, a battery.
// [45]permalink
8.18.2004
Interplanetary robots
[46]NASA Develops Robust AI For Planetary Rovers
From the article:
NASA is planning to add a strong dose of artificial intelligence (AI)
to planetary rovers to make them much more self-reliant, capable
of making basic decisions during a mission.
Scientists at NASA Ames Research Center, in the heart of
California's Silicon Valley, are developing very complex AI
software that enables a higher level of robotic intelligence.
In the past, very simple artificial intelligence systems on board
rovers allowed them to make some simple decisions, but much
smarter AI will enable these mobile robots to make many decisions
now made by mission controllers.
// [47]permalink
8.17.2004
Tomato-picking robots
[48]Ohio State University develops robotic tomato harvester for the
J.F. Kennedy Space Center
Further research in robotic farming is being helped by NASA of all
people. According to the article:
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) considers
farming a matter of survival for future long-term space missions.
Plants provide food when deliveries from Earth aren't feasible and
make air breathable and water drinkable. But who will care for and
harvest crops when astronauts are so busy carrying out key mission
tasks? "Labor requirements to grow and harvest the crops must be
reduced through automation," said Peter Ling, an Ohio State
University Extension specialist.
Also:
The harvester includes a sensing unit and a robotic hand integrated
with a commercial robotic manipulator provided by Motoman Inc.,
West Carrollton, Ohio.
The sensing unit, or robotic eye, scans the tomato plant and
determines the number and position of red fruits. With this
information, the four-finger prosthetic hand moves in the
direction of the fruit. The fingers then open around the tomato
and get a hold of it before a pulling, bending or torsion movement
is applied to detach it.
There are plans to expand the research into other fruit crops like
apples and oranges.
See also:
* [49]Produce picking robot
* [50]Agricultural robots to take over the farm
* [51]Farms and robots
// [52]permalink
8.16.2004
Robots and guns
The company called Metal Storm creates guns that can fire bullets at
rates "in excess of one million rounds per minute". It is probably
safe to say that a gun that can shoot a million rounds a minute is
fairly lethal. So the obvious thing to do is to give such a gun to a
robot, as demonstrated in this video collection:
[53]Metal Storm - Video - Latest Releases
[54][may14A3_talon.jpg]
See also: [55]Successful X-45 robotic bomber
// [56]permalink
8.14.2004
The Coming Robot Revolution
[57]The Coming Robot Revolution
From the article:
Robots, from mechanical dogs that can learn new tricks to automated
vacuum cleaners that avoid furniture, are steadily becoming a part
of everyday life. But the real robot boom lies just ahead, experts
say.
// [58]permalink
8.11.2004
Olympic security
[59]CNN.com - Olympics' digital security unprecedented
From the article:
If you're going to the Olympics, you'd better be careful what you say
and do in public.
Software will be watching and listening.
Recent leaps in technology have paired highly sophisticated
software with street surveillance cameras to create digital
security guards with intelligence-gathering skills.
Also:
It gathers images and audio from an electronic web of over 1,000
high-resolution and infrared cameras, 12 patrol boats, 4,000
vehicles, nine helicopters, a sensor-laden blimp and four mobile
command centers.
This is an extremely good example of a [60]Robotic Bubble. As we
create [61]humanoid robotic guards and [62]armed robotic security
forces these bubbles will get bigger and much tighter.
The bubble around Washington is being noted in articles like these:
* [63]Street Closing Irks D.C. Leaders (washingtonpost.com): "...set
up 14 vehicle checkpoints, creating a huge security perimeter
around powerful symbols..."
* [64]The New York Times: Safety Precautions Transform Appearance of
Capitol Hill
It is very easy to imagine the day when you cannot enter any American
city unless you have permission to do so. They will all be protected
by bubbles.
See also [65]Robotic Surveillance and [66]Manna for details.
// [67]permalink
8.10.2004
What robotic memory will look like in 10 years
[68]Taiwan firms to launch 2TB memory card
From the article:
The format will support up to 2TB of storage capacity within a 3.2 x
2.4 x 0.1cm card - the same size as a standard MMC unit. The new
cards are said to be connector-compatible with the older format.
The new cards will have a data transfer rate of 120MBps, ten times
that of SD memory cards. Like the Secure Digital format, µcard
will support I/O devices, such as Bluetooth and 802.11 adaptors.
It is very rare today to find a personal computer with one terabyte of
disk space. If it has it, it is made up of 4 to 10 drives and has an
access rate of 30 or 40 MB/sec. The drive array takes up a cubic foot
or more of space, consumes lots of electricity, generates lots of heat
and weighs 20 pounds.
In 10 years, robots will be running around with two terabytes of
memory that is 4 times faster, uses no power to speak of and fills a
cubic centimeter of space. That's the effect of [69]Moore's Law. See
also:
* [70]Keeping up with Moore's Law
* [71]Moore's law and hard disks
* [72]The effects of Moore's law
Another example of the same trend: [73]Holographic discs look like
DVDs but hold a terabyte of information. Today.
// [74]permalink
8.9.2004
Robotic assembly
[75]Popular Science | A Limber Future
The article notes:
At this stage, however, NanoSonic is busy meeting the demand for its
12-inch-by-12-inch samples, which take custom-built robots up to
three days to create. That's speedy, if you consider that Metal
Rubber, a product of nanotechnology, must be fabricated molecule
by molecule.
// [76]permalink
8.5.2004
Kids and multi-tasking
[77]The screen-age: Our brains in our laptops
From the article:
A student may have a textbook open. The television is on with sound
off (perhaps with the CNN Headline News modular screen). They've
got music on headphones. On a laptop hooked in to the Internet
there's a homework window, along with e-mail and instant messaging
in the background. The Web has become an essential part of
checking facts and figures for the homework (not to mention
plagiarizing with copy and paste). On top of that, the student may
field phone calls or talk with a roommate.
One of the most striking observations in Turkle's findings was a
quote from one multi-tasking student who preferred the online
world to the face-to-face world. "Real life," he said, "is just
one more window."
College students are the leading edge in adapting to this new
goldfish bowl, these new multi-tasking sense ratios. Some of us
will hold on to the old ways by our fingernails, afraid of losing
a coherent self. Others will plunge into the new collective nerve
center, our various selves loosely joined in a partial free-fall
at all times.
This goes back to the post entitled [78]Robots and teachers, and helps
explain why "traditional education" using a human lecturer standing at
a whiteboard simply will not last that much longer. It it too boring,
too slow...
// [79]permalink
8.4.2004
Keeping up with Moore's Law
I gave a [80]talk to a group of robotics folks on Monday night, and
one of the concerns that came up in the Q&A session afterwards was
that [81]Moore's Law will somehow "run out of steam." Two of the
problems that people brought up included, a) the ever-shrinking size
of transistors cannot continue forever, and b) increasing power
consumption cannot continue forever. One point made is that current
supercomputers (the kind with 10,000 Pentium chips running in
parallel) can consume 10 to 20 megawatts of power. Certainly a robot
cannot consume 20 megawatts.
I understand both points, but I think they are both irrelevant. First,
we KNOW it is possible to produce a high-performance, low power CPU.
Each one of us has a brain that performs something on the order of one
quadrillion operations per second, yet it consumes only [82]20 watts.
Second, Scientists and engineers make discoveries all the time, and
things simply get faster and faster. 20 years ago a Cray computer ran
so hot that the entire computer (as big as a refrigerator) was
immersed in [83]liquid FC-77 to extract the prodigious amounts of heat
it created. [84]Today you can get that same power in a little desktop
computer cooled with a small fan. That's normal progress, and there's
nothing going to stop that sort of progress.
Here are two articles that show current trends in making computers
faster and more efficient:
[85]Sun chips away at wireless chip connections
From the article:
It will take a lot of work, but Sun Microsystems says it is making
headway on a technology that will allow chips to communicate
without circuit boards or wires.
The technology, called "proximity communication," aims to let one
chip transmit signals directly to another next to it, instead of
through the tangle of pins, wires and circuit boards employed
today. If successful, the technique could greatly alter many
aspects of computer design.
Performance, for instance, could greatly escalate because the
speed of transferring data among chips and the number of channels
for the transfers would increase. Energy consumption could also
decline. Just as important, overall costs could fall, because
defective chips could be removed like Scrabble tiles.
Also:
The technique could also allow designers to remove the cache--the
large pool of memory currently found on the processor--and put it
on a separate chip. Caches were integrated onto processors to
amplify bandwidth. Adding cache, however, bumps up manufacturing
costs, as it greatly increases the number of transistors. With the
bandwidth constraint gone, caches could once again be made
independent without it having an impact on performance.
If you take out the cache -- representing millions of transistors --
you can use those transistors for something else. See [86]this page
for some thoughts.
This article talks about a whole new paradigm for computing:
[87]Nanotech leads way to quantum computing
From the article:
Plastic chips and quantum computing could be among the new ways of
keeping up with Moore's Law in the future, according to a new
study on nanotechnology, the science of manipulating matter on a
molecular level.
One point I made in my talk and in my article discussed how quickly
airplanes advanced between 1903 and 1954:
Imagine that you could travel back in time to the year 1900. Imagine
that you stand on a soap box on a city street corner in 1900 and
you say to the gathering crowd, "By 1955, people will be flying at
supersonic speeds in sleek aircraft and traveling coast to coast
in just a few hours." In 1900, it would have been insane to
suggest that. In 1900, airplanes did not even exist. Orville and
Wilbur did not make the first flight until 1903. The Model T Ford
did not appear until 1909.
Yet, by 1947, Chuck Yeager flew the X1 at supersonic speeds. In
1954, the B-52 bomber made its maiden flight. It took only 51
years to go from a rickety wooden airplane flying at 10 MPH, to a
gigantic aluminum jet-powered Stratofortress carrying 70,000
pounds of bombs halfway around the world at 550 MPH.
That is the kind of progress we will continue to see in computing
power over the next 50 years. We will see progress in [88]transitor
size and power consumption, packaging, etc. We will also see
completely new paradigms arise. What these developments mean is a
[89]dramatic increase in robotic intelligence over the next several
decades, along with [90]dramatic changes in the world economy.
See also:
* [91]Moore's Law continues
* [92]Moore's law and hard disks
* [93]Future processors
* [94]The effects of Moore's law
* [95]Robotic AI using Neural Nets
// [96]permalink
8.3.2004
Robotic Spacecraft
Europe has a new spacecraft to ferry supplies up to the International
Space Station. It is just about ready for its maiden flight, and it is
completely robotic -- it has no accomodations for human pilots or
passengers, and burns up on re-entry so it has no use as a "life boat"
either.
[97]Europe Creates its Own Space Vehicle
[98][0,3772,94927_10,00.jpg]
From the article:
After the launch of the Jules Verne, one ATV will be launched by ESA
about every year, carrying 7.5 tons of cargo from the Kourou
launch site in French Guyana. The cylindrical vessel weighs 20
tons and measures 10.3 meters long (33.79 feet) and 4.5 meters in
diameter. After a journey of up to five days, it will dock with
the space station's Russian service module using a precision laser
tracking system that looks like a scene straight out of "Star
Wars."
By eliminating humans from the system, the design and manufacturing
process is highly simplified -- no life support; no extra weight and
space for chairs, controls, displays; no need to worry about re-entry;
No "escape hatches"; etc.
See also [99]Robots and Nasa and [100]Robotic repair call to Hubble
taking shape.
// [101]permalink
8.1.2004
Cars that express emotion
If this takes off, it his will be a very short-lived phenomenon:
[102]A car that winks, laughs and cries
From the article:
Four inventors working for Toyota in Japan have won a patent for a car
that they say can help drivers communicate better by glaring
angrily at another car cutting through traffic as well as appear
to cry, laugh, wink or just look around.
The inventors explain in the patent that they want drivers to have
more than a one-note horn and on-off headlights to signal other
drivers. The horn sounds the same, they write, whether a driver is
asking for permission to cut in front of another car or showing
gratitude for having been allowed to cut in front, so other people
often do not know what the honking is about.
The reason it will be short-lived is because, within 15 years or so,
cars will all be driving themselves and communicating with each other
and a central data center continuously. There will be no need for
something as primitive and silly as tears. The cars will be sharing
reams of data at the speed of light.
See also: [103]Robot drivers.
// [104]permalink
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59. http://edition.cnn.com/2004/TECH/08/10/olympics.security.ap/index.html
60. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/06/israel-to-build-robotic-borders.html
61. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/04/future-of-robotic-police.html
62. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/04/successful-x-45-robotic-bomber.html
63. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33730-2004Aug2.html
64. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/04/politics/04capitol.html?ei=5006&en=4969bf8531187190&ex=1092283200&partner=ALTAVISTA1&pagewanted=print&position=
65. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/07/robotic-surveillance.html
66. http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
67. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/olympic-security.html
68. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/08/06/taiwan_mem_card/
69. http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm#moore
70. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/keeping-up-with-moores-law.html
71. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/03/moores-law-and-hard-disks.html
72. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/06/effects-of-moores-law.html
73. http://www.optware.co.jp/english/what_040823.htm
74. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/what-robotic-memory-will-look-like-in.html
75. http://www.popsci.com/popsci/science/article/0,12543,676853,00.html
76. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/robotic-assembly.html
77. http://edition.cnn.com/2004/TECH/08/02/school.internet/index.html
78. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/04/robots-and-teachers.html
79. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/kids-and-multi-tasking.html
80. http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
81. http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm#Moore
82. http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2001/JacquelineLing.shtml
83. http://www.electronics-cooling.com/Resources/EC_Articles/MAY96/may96_04.htm
84. http://compnetworking.about.com/library/weekly/aa051902b.htm
85. http://news.com.com/Sun%20chips%20away%20at%20wireless%20chip%20connections/2100-1006_3-5291289.html
86. http://marshallbrain.blogspot.com/2004/02/intels-prescott-chip-latest-pentium-4.html
87. http://www.vnunet.com/news/1156996
88. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2003/11/moores-law-continuesintel-reports-new.html
89. http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
90. http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-freedom.htm
91. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2003/11/moores-law-continuesintel-reports-new.html
92. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/03/moores-law-and-hard-disks.html
93. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/06/future-processors.html
94. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/06/effects-of-moores-law.html
95. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2003/10/robotic-ai-using-neural-nets.html
96. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/keeping-up-with-moores-law.html
97. http://www.dw-world.de/english/0,3367,1446_A_1280481_1_A,00.html
98. http://www.dw-world.de/english/0,3367,1446_A_1280481_1_A,00.html
99. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/06/robots-and-nasa.html
100. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/06/robotic-repair-call-to-hubble-taking.html
101. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/robotic-spacecraft.html
102. http://www.iht.com/articles/531134.html
103. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/02/robotic-drivers.html
104. http://roboticnation.blogspot.com/2004/08/cars-that-express-emotion.html
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