[Paleopsych] Wired: (Flynn Effect): Dome Improvement
Buck, Ross
ross.buck at uconn.edu
Fri May 6 16:13:36 UTC 2005
All sorts of signals, including signals experienced in the womb. In
infants simple sensory stimulation is critical to turn on genetic
potential. Later, signals from other human beings become critical. We
bioregulate one another via emotional communication--indeed this is true
of all creatures--working particularly via peptide neurohormones. Human
social organization emerges from interactions involving emotional
communication, literally priming the DNA to respond appropriately (or
not). Environmental signals can screw up the DNA as well, of course.
Deprivation of physical/social stimuli due to
abuse/neglect--particularly during sensitive periods--can undermine
genetic potential for a lifetime, as can signals that can be associated
with poverty, discrimination, bad education, lack of opportunity, etc.
>From the Flynn effect, it appears possible that modern media optimize
the expression of whatever human DNA is associated with performance on
IQ-type tests. What they do for SOCIAL competence is another question.
Television has been likened to Harlow's cloth-covered surrogate mothers:
warm and fuzzy but basically unresponsive to the user. Newer technology
is responsive to the user as well, of course, and it is noteworthy how
kids eat it up (Piaget's "aliments" at work).
Cheers, Ross
-----Original Message-----
From: paleopsych-bounces at paleopsych.org
[mailto:paleopsych-bounces at paleopsych.org] On Behalf Of Steve Hovland
Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2005 9:13 PM
To: 'The new improved paleopsych list'
Subject: RE: [Paleopsych] Wired: (Flynn Effect): Dome Improvement
What kind of environmental signals optimize the expression
of human DNA?
Steve Hovland
www.stevehovland.net
-----Original Message-----
From: Buck, Ross [SMTP:ross.buck at uconn.edu]
Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2005 10:00 AM
To: The new improved paleopsych list
Subject: RE: [Paleopsych] Wired: (Flynn Effect): Dome Improvement
Again the notion of heritability is being presented as a meaningful
measure
of genetic-versus-environmental influence. Most monozygotic twins are
monochorionic, sharing the same choroid plexus and therefore the same
blood
supply in the womb. A minority are dichorionic, with identical genes
but a
different intrauterine blood supply. Davis, Phelps and Bracha
(Schizophrenia Bulletin, 1995, 21, 357-366) investigated concordance of
schizophrenia in monochorionic and dichorionic monozygotic twins, and
found
that while the concordance rate for MC MZ twins was 60% (i.e., if one
twin
is schizophrenic there is a 60% chance the other will be as well), the
concordance rate of the DC MZ twins (with identical genes) was 10.7%.
Environmental influences are overwhelming, and they begin at
conception:
the genes do nothing without environmental influences turning them on
and
off.
The Flynn effect suggests that the vast media wasteland may actually
function as a vast brain playground.
Cheers, Ross
Ross Buck, Ph. D.
Professor of Communication Sciences
and Psychology
Communication Sciences U-1085
University of Connecticut
Storrs, CT 06269-1085
860-486-4494
fax 860-486-5422
Ross.buck at uconn.edu
http://www.coms.uconn.edu/docs/people/faculty/rbuck/index.htm
-----Original Message-----
From: paleopsych-bounces at paleopsych.org
[mailto:paleopsych-bounces at paleopsych.org] On Behalf Of Premise Checker
Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2005 12:27 PM
To: paleopsych at paleopsych.org
Subject: [Paleopsych] Wired: (Flynn Effect): Dome Improvement
Dome Improvement
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.05/flynn_pr.html
First some remarks from
From: Hal Finney <hal at finney.org>
Date: Tue, 3 May 2005 11:03:41 -0700 (PDT)
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
except that the article is now available:
Wired magazine's new issue has an article on the Flynn Effect, which we
have discussed here occasionally. This is probably my favorite Effect,
so completely extropian and contradictory to the conventional wisdom.
Curmudgeons throughout the ages have complained about the decay of
society
and how the younger generation is inferior in morals and intelligence
to their elders. Likewise modern communications technology is derided:
TV is a vast wasteland, video games and movies promote sex and violence.
Yet Flynn discovered the astonishing and still little-known fact
that intelligence scores have steadily increased for at least the
past 100 years. And it's a substantial gain; people who would have
been considered geniuses 100 years ago would be merely average today.
Perhaps even more surprisingly, the gains cannot be directly attributed
to
improved education, as the greatest improvements are found in the parts
of the test that directly measure abstract reasoning via visual puzzles,
not concrete knowledge based on language or mathematical skills.
The Wired article (which should be online in a few days) does not have
much that is new, but one fact which popped out is that the Effect has
not only continued in the last couple of generations, but is increasing.
Average IQ gains were 0.31 per year in the 1950s and 60s, but by the
1990s had grown to 0.36 per year.
Explanations for the Effect seem to be as numerous as people who have
studied it. Flynn himself does not seem to believe that it is real,
in the sense that it actually points to increased intelligence. I was
amused by economist David Friedman's suggestion that it is due to the
increased use of Caesarian deliveries allowing for larger head sizes!
The Wired article focuses on increased visual stimulation as the
catalyst,
which seems plausible as part of the story. The article then predicts
that the next generation, exposed since babyhood to video games with
demanding puzzle solving, mapping and coordination skills, will see an
even greater improvement in IQ scores.
Sometimes I wonder if the social changes we saw during the 20th century
may have been caused or at least promoted by greater human intelligence.
It's a difficult thesis to make because you first have to overcome the
conventional wisdom that says that the 1900s were a century of human
depravity and violence. But if you look deeper and recognize the
tremendous growth of morality and ethical sensitivity in this period
(which is what makes us judge ourselves so harshly), you have to ask,
maybe it is because people woke up, began to think for themselves, and
weren't willing to let themselves be manipulated and influenced as in
the past? If so, then this bodes well for the future.
--------------now the article:
Pop quiz: Why are IQ test scores rising around the globe? (Hint: Stop re
ading
the great authors and start playing Grand Theft Auto.)
By Steven Johnson
Twenty-three years ago, an American philosophy professor named James
Flynn
discovered a remarkable trend: Average IQ scores in every industrialized
country on the planet had been increasing steadily for decades. Despite
concerns about the dumbing-down of society - the failing schools, the
garbage
on TV, the decline of reading - the overall population was getting
smarter.
And
the climb has continued, with more recent studies showing that the rate
of
IQ
increase is accelerating. Next to global warming and Moore's law, the
so-called
Flynn effect may be the most revealing line on the increasingly crowded
chart
of modern life - and it's an especially hopeful one. We still have
plenty
of
problems to solve, but at least there's one consolation: Our brains are
getting
better at problem-solving.
Unless you happen to think the very notion of IQ is bunk. Anyone who has
read
Stephen Jay Gould's The Mismeasure of Man or Howard Gardner's work on
multiple
intelligences or any critique of The Bell Curve is liable to dismiss IQ
as
merely phrenology updated, a pseudoscience fronting for a host of racist
and
elitist ideologies that dare not speak their names.
These critics attack IQ itself - or, more precisely, what intelligence
scholar
Arthur Jensen called g, a measure of underlying "general" intelligence.
Psychometricians measure g by performing a factor analysis of multiple
intelligence tests and extracting a pattern of correlation between the
measurements. (IQ is just one yardstick.) Someone with greater general
intelligence than average should perform better on a range of different
tests.
Unlike some skeptics, James Flynn didn't just dismiss g as statistical
tap
dancing. He accepted that something real was being measured, but he came
to
believe that it should be viewed along another axis: time. You can't
just
take
a snapshot of g at one moment and make sense of it, Flynn says. You have
to
track its evolution. He did just that. Suddenly, g became much more than
a
measure of mental ability. It revealed the rising trend line in
intelligence
test scores. And that, in turn, suggested that something in the
environment
-
some social or cultural force - was driving the trend.
Significant intellectual breakthroughs - to paraphrase the John Lennon
song
-
are what happen when you're busy making other plans. So it was with
Flynn
and
his effect. He left the US in the early 1960s to teach moral philosophy
at
the
University of Otaga in New Zealand. In the late '70s, he began exploring
the
intellectual underpinnings of racist ideologies. "And I thought: Oh, I
can
do a
bit about the IQ controversies," he says. "And then I saw that Arthur
Jensen, a
scholar of high repute, actually thought that blacks on average were
genetically inferior - which was quite a shock. I should say that Jensen
was
beyond reproach - he's certainly not a racist. And so I thought I'd
better
look
into this."
This inquiry led to a 1980 book, Race, IQ, and Jensen, that posited an
environmental - not genetic - explanation for the black-white IQ gap.
After
finishing the book, Flynn decided that he would look for evidence that
blacks
were gaining on whites as their access to education increased, and so he
began
studying US military records, since every incoming member of the armed
forces
takes an IQ test.
Sure enough, he found that blacks were making modest gains on whites in
intelligence tests, confirming his environmental explanation. But
something
else in the data caught his eye. Every decade or so, the testing
companies
would generate new tests and re-normalize them so that the average score
was
100. To make sure that the new exams were in sync with previous ones,
they'd
have a batch of students take both tests. They were simply trying to
confirm
that someone who tested above average on the new version would perform
above
average on the old, and in fact the results confirmed that correlation.
But
the
data also brought to light another pattern, one that the testing
companies
ignored. "Every time kids took the new and the old tests, they did
better
on
the old ones," Flynn says. "I thought: That's weird."
The testing companies had published the comparative data almost as an
afterthought. "It didn't seem to strike them as interesting that the
kids
were
always doing better on the earlier test," he says. "But I was new to the
area."
He sent his data to the Harvard Educational Review, which dismissed the
paper
for its small sample size. And so Flynn dug up every study that had ever
been
done in the US where the same subjects took a new and an old version of
an
IQ
test. "And lo and behold, when you examined that huge collection of
data,
it
revealed a 14-point gain between 1932 and 1978." According to Flynn's
numbers,
if someone testing in the top 18 percent the year FDR was elected were
to
time-travel to the middle of the Carter administration, he would score
at
the
50th percentile.
When Flynn finally published his work in 1984, Jensen objected that
Flynn's
numbers were drawing on tests that reflected educational background. He
predicted that the Flynn effect would disappear if one were to look at
tests -
like the Raven Progressive Matrices - that give a closer approximation
of
g, by
measuring abstract reasoning and pattern recognition and eliminating
language
altogether. And so Flynn dutifully collected IQ data from all over the
world.
All of it showed dramatic increases. "The biggest of all were on
Ravens,"
Flynn
reports with a hint of glee still in his voice.
The trend Flynn discovered in the mid-'80s has been investigated
extensively,
and there's little doubt he's right. In fact, the Flynn effect is
accelerating.
US test takers gained 17 IQ points between 1947 and 2001. The annual
gain
from
1947 through 1972 was 0.31 IQ point, but by the '90s it had crept up to
0.36.
Though the Flynn effect is now widely accepted, its existence has in
turn
raised new questions. The most fundamental: Why are measures of
intelligence
going up? The phenomenon would seem to make no sense in light of the
evidence
that g is largely an inherited trait. We're certainly not evolving that
quickly.
The classic heritability research paradigm is the twin adoption study:
Look
at
IQ scores for thousands of individuals with various forms of shared
genes
and
environments, and hunt for correlations. This is the sort of chart you
get,
with 100 being a perfect match and 0 pure randomness:
The same person tested twice: 87
Identical twins raised together: 86
Identical twins raised apart: 76
Fraternal twins raised together: 55
Biological siblings: 47
Parents and children living together: 40
Parents and children living apart: 31
Adopted children living together: 0
Unrelated people living apart: 0
After analyzing these shifting ratios of shared genes and the
environment
for
several decades, the consensus grew, in the '90s, that heritability for
IQ
was
around 0.6 - or about 60 percent. The two most powerful indications of
this
are
at the top and bottom of the chart: Identical twins raised in different
environments have IQs almost as similar to each other as the same person
tested
twice, while adopted children living together - shared environment, but
no
shared genes - show no correlation. When you look at a chart like that,
the
evidence for significant heritability looks undeniable.
Four years ago, Flynn and William Dickens, a Brookings Institution
economist,
proposed another explanation, one made apparent to them by the Flynn
effect.
Imagine "somebody who starts out with a tiny little physiological
advantage:
He's just a bit taller than his friends," Dickens says. "That person is
going
to be just a bit better at basketball." Thanks to this minor height
advantage,
he tends to enjoy pickup basketball games. He goes on to play in high
school,
where he gets excellent coaching and accumulates more experience and
skill.
"And that sets up a cycle that could, say, take him all the way to the
NBA,"
Dickens says.
Now imagine this person has an identical twin raised separately. He,
too,
will
share the height advantage, and so be more likely to find his way into
the
same
cycle. And when some imagined basketball geneticist surveys the data at
the
end
of that cycle, he'll report that two identical twins raised apart share
an
off-the-charts ability at basketball. "If you did a genetic analysis,
you'd
say: Well, this guy had a gene that made him a better basketball
player,"
Dickens says. "But the fact is, that gene is making him 1 percent
better,
and
the other 99 percent is that because he's slightly taller, he got all
this
environmental support." And what goes for basketball goes for
intelligence:
Small genetic differences get picked up and magnified in the
environment,
resulting in dramatically enhanced skills. "The heritability studies
weren't
wrong," Flynn says. "We just misinterpreted them."
Dickens and Flynn showed that the environment could affect heritable
traits
like IQ, but one mystery remained: What part of our allegedly
dumbed-down
environment is making us smarter? It's not schools, since the tests that
measure education-driven skills haven't shown the same steady gains.
It's
not
nutrition - general improvement in diet leveled off in most
industrialized
countries shortly after World War II, just as the Flynn effect was
accelerating.
Most cognitive scholars remain genuinely perplexed. "I find it a puzzle
and
don't have a compelling explanation," wrote Harvard's Steven Pinker in
an
email
exchange. "I suspect that it's either practice at taking tests or
perhaps a
large number of disparate factors that add up to the linear trend."
Flynn has his theories, though they're still speculative. "For a long
time
it
bothered me that g was going up without an across-the-board increase in
other
tests," he says. If g measured general intelligence, then a long-term
increase
should trickle over into other subtests. "And then I realized that
society
has
priorities. Let's say we're too cheap to hire good high school math
teachers.
So while we may want to improve arithmetical reasoning skills, we just
don't.
On the other hand, with smaller families, more leisure, and more energy
to
use
leisure for cognitively demanding pursuits, we may improve - without
realizing
it - on-the-spot problem-solving, like you see with Ravens."
When you take the Ravens test, you're confronted with a series of visual
grids,
each containing a mix of shapes that seem vaguely related to one
another.
Each
grid contains a missing shape; to answer the implicit question posed by
the
test, you need to pick the correct missing shape from a selection of
eight
possibilities. To "solve" these puzzles, in other words, you have to
scrutinize
a changing set of icons, looking for unusual patterns and correlations
among
them.
This is not the kind of thinking that happens when you read a book or
have
a
conversation with someone or take a history exam. But it is precisely
the
kind
of mental work you do when you, say, struggle to program a VCR or master
the
interface on your new cell phone.
Over the last 50 years, we've had to cope with an explosion of media,
technologies, and interfaces, from the TV clicker to the World Wide Web.
And
every new form of visual media - interactive visual media in particular
-
poses
an implicit challenge to our brains: We have to work through the logic
of
the
new interface, follow clues, sense relationships. Perhaps
unsurprisingly,
these
are the very skills that the Ravens tests measure - you survey a field
of
visual icons and look for unusual patterns.
The best example of brain-boosting media may be videogames. Mastering
visual
puzzles is the whole point of the exercise - whether it's the spatial
geometry
of Tetris, the engineering riddles of Myst, or the urban mapping of
Grand
Theft
Auto.
The ultimate test of the "cognitively demanding leisure" hypothesis may
come in
the next few years, as the generation raised on hypertext and massively
complex
game worlds starts taking adult IQ tests. This is a generation of kids
who,
in
many cases, learned to puzzle through the visual patterns of graphic
interfaces
before they learned to read. Their fundamental intellectual powers
weren't
shaped only by coping with words on a page. They acquired an intuitive
understanding of shapes and environments, all of them laced with
patterns
that
can be detected if you think hard enough. Their parents may have
enhanced
their
fluid intelligence by playing Tetris or learning the visual grammar of
TV
advertising. But that's child's play compared with Pokemon.
Contributing editor Steven Johnson (stevenberlinjohnson at earthlink.net)
is
the
author of Everything Bad Is Good for You: How Today's Popular Culture Is
Actually Making Us Smarter.
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