[Paleopsych] Re: The failure to calculate the costs of war

[shovland at mindspring.com]

After the war in Iraq the US will no longer be a super power.

This one will break the bank.  It already has.

I think most of the world is sitting back waiting for us to fall.

-----Original Message-----
>From: Premise Checker <checker at panix.com>
>Sent: Jan 12, 2006 7:53 AM
>To: 
>Cc: paleopsych at paleopsych.org
>Subject: [Paleopsych] Re: The failure to calculate the costs of war
>
>I wonder what wars have ever been profitable. The Allies could have 
>purchased all real estate, buildings, etc., from the Axis countries in 
>World War II and have saved money. I once calculated that the U.S. could 
>have bought Vietnam for what it was spending each month on fighting the 
>war.
>
>The people don't benefit by having new tax collectors, but the glory of 
>kings is enhanced.
>
>Maybe wars were profitable to the looters for a while. Eventually these 
>bandits noted that they lands they raided had less to offer the second 
>time around and so became what the late Mancur Olson called "stationary 
>bandits" and saw to it that they could engage in repeated extraction. They 
>would also provide protection from rival bandits. Olson said this was the 
>greatest breakthrough in history.
>
>See John V. Denson, _Costs of War: America's Pyrrhic Victories_ for an Old 
>Right perspective, which I share, though I concluded a few weeks after 
>9/11 that empire is here to stay.
>
>Frank
>
>On 2006-01-11, K.E. opined [message unchanged below]:
>
>> Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 14:58:15 -0500
>> From: K.E. <guavaberry at earthlink.net>
>> To: checker at panix.com, paleopsych at paleopsych.org
>> Subject: The failure to calculate the costs of war
>> 
>>
>> With these costs taken into account, the total macroeconomic costs may
>> add up to $750bn and total costs to $1,850bn.
>>
>> "We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security."
>> -Dwight David Eisenhower, U.S. general and 34th president (1890-1969)
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Martin Wolf is a respectable economist and chief
>> economics commentator at the Financial Times
>>
>> Martin Wolf: The failure to calculate the costs of war
>> http://news.ft.com/cms/s/48ad9c0a-820f-11da-aea0-0000779e2340.html
>>
>>    Before the Iraq war began, Lawrence Lindsey, then president George
>> W. Bush's economic adviser, suggested that the costs might reach
>> $200bn. The White House promptly fired him. Mr Lindsey was indeed
>> wrong. But his error lay in grossly underestimating the costs. The
>> administration's estimates of a cost of some $50-$60bn were a fantasy,
>> as were Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, and much else.
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>> So far the government has spent $251bn in hard cash. But the costs
>> continue. If the US begins to withdraw troops this year, but maintains
>> a diminishing presence for the next five years, the additional cost
>> will be at least $200bn, under what Profs Bilmes and Stiglitz call
>> their "conservative" option. Under their "moderate" one, the cost
>> reaches $271bn, because troops remain until 2015.
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>> With these costs taken into account, the total macroeconomic costs may
>> add up to $750bn and total costs to $1,850bn.
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>> It is possible to argue that the benefits for Iraq, the Middle East
>> and the world will outweigh all these costs. But that depends on the
>> emergence, in Iraq, of a stable and peaceful democratic order. That
>> has not yet been achieved.
>>
>> Even those who supported the war must draw two lessons. First, the
>> exercise of military power is far more expensive than many fondly
>> hoped. Second, such policy decisions require a halfway decent analysis
>> of the costs and possible consequences. The administration's failure
>> to do so was a blunder that will harm the US and the world for years
>> to come.
>>
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