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<DIV>I doubt that in my lifetime I'll figure out how to make replicable experiments in the world of mass emotion and mass culture. The big problem is replicability. </DIV>
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<DIV>Culture and mass moods are different from one day to the next. The global context that tweaks these moods is constantly changing. New ideas, new technologies, new world views, and new relationships between people, between subcultures, between nations, and between supranational movements make the cultural context of one day very different from the cultural context of the day that follows.</DIV>
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<DIV>One way to see the shifts of mass perception and mass emotion is to look at the news. News hunts for anomalies, for differences. It may return to the same story over and over again, but it looks for the change in that story. Why? Because human curiosity demands change, shift, and the new.</DIV>
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<DIV>This restlessness in itself is worthy of scientific study. Those who are content will die without the antsiness of the restless. Tom Seeley has shown this in his work with bees.</DIV>
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<DIV>Neil Miller managed to extract predictable patterns from the news with his frustration-agression hypothesis. He started with history and current events--lynchings in the south. Then he hypothesized and demonstrated a relationship between lynchings and cotton prices. Finally he predicted that lab rats subjected to frustration or pain would lash out with aggression. Then he proved it.</DIV>
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<DIV>My work is more in the nature of what Darwin did in South America. I'm adventuring in the hope of tapping into experiences few folks in science gain access to. I've learned how to make replicable predictions about how to build superstars. But those have been based on a combination of reason, analysis, broad knowledge, and...the hard but essential part...gut level, highly-trained intuition.</DIV>
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<DIV>At this point I should be working to express those gut-intuitions in words and in testable principles. Alas, my gut and my reason predicts that a superstar of history, Osama bin Laden, may soon end the civilization that gives you and me the privilege of participating in the scientific process.</DIV>
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<DIV>So I've been forced to try to stop the very thing my intuition and reason are predicting--the destruction of key cities in America by nuclear, chemical, and conventional means.</DIV>
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<DIV>This is an experiment in history, but one that's not replicable or measurable. The hypothesis it's based on is that there is a pecking order of groups, a pecking order of subcultures, a pecking order of nations, and a pecking order of civilizations. Groups periodically battle for alpha position. The sub-hypothesis is that groups battle not when they are deprived, but when they are flush with resources and see an opportunity to take over. They judge their chances much as Franz de Waal's beta chimps judge the right moment to take their next incremental move toward the top.</DIV>
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<DIV>A bunch of extraordinarily rich kids--Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and others like them--are trying to topple America, Russia, Western Civilization, and a clutch of principles they regard as Satanic. They are out to eradicate the following Satanic notions:</DIV>
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<DIV>1) that man can make his own constitution and laws</DIV>
<DIV>2) that man can separate himself from Koranic mandates by promoting a heretical notion that we call "freedom"</DIV>
<DIV>3) that man can promote what we call human rights</DIV>
<DIV>4) that man has a right to promote what we call gay rights</DIV>
<DIV>5) and that man has the right to speak ungodly and unislamic words in the name of a false principle we call freedom of speech.</DIV>
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<DIV>This worldview takes our values and turns them into moral poisons. It makes Islam the only religion that understands purity, and it makes us the epitome of corruption and evil.</DIV>
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<DIV>In other words it uses ideas to turn the tables and make our group the dirt under the sole of humanity's feet. It puts us on the bottom of the hierarchical totem pole of groups. And it puts Islam on the top.</DIV>
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<DIV>It is natural and just that those who understand purity, truth, god's laws, and god's justice should rule god's planet. So a perceptual trick of hierarchy has set the stage for a power grab, a grab for the number one military and political position.</DIV>
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<DIV>But this time round the weapons of a cumpulsory Holy War are no longer swords, they are the nuclear fires the Koran predicted would torture unbelievers.</DIV>
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<DIV>There is science in here somewhere--a science of the forces of history. But right now I have to do everything in my extremely limited power to make sure that my own predictions do not come true.</DIV>
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<DIV>Onward--Howard</DIV>
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<DIV>In a message dated 9/9/2004 4:00:07 AM Eastern Standard Time, jpankse@bgnet.bgsu.edu writes:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: blue 2px solid"><FONT face=Arial>Dear Howard,<BR><BR>Interesting, but must make my response short since I am on a month long <BR>lecture tour in Europe, and jumping from one place to another every few <BR>days, often with inadequate time or computer links to keep up on e-<BR>mails. <BR><BR>I have no major disagreements with what you said. . . no question that <BR>laboratory research imposes enormous constraints on certain phenomena, <BR>while allowing others to be studies incisively with all the traditional <BR>controls. Whether the cultural world can really be used as a laboratory <BR>sremains to be seen. I think here we may be really bouncing off the <BR>traditional world of science, where things really cannot be adequately <BR>measured and the precictions often are weak. That is why cultural <BR>studies are usually in the humanities, giving us many useful and <BR>contentiously useless and often hard to comprehend perspectives. <BR><BR>I am all ears for a more compelling approaches that have the earmarks <BR>of traditional science. . . replicability. No question that current <BR>scientific methodology has enormous constraints in dealing with the <BR>ultra-complexities of many cultural and mental dynamics. Just attended <BR>the 5th Neuro-Psychoanalytic congress in Rome where such complexties <BR>and difficulties where very evident.<BR><BR>Greetings from Cambridge,<BR><BR>Warm regards, <BR><BR>Jaak <BR><BR>---------Included Message----------<BR>>Date: 4-Sep-2004 23:21:38 -0400<BR>>From: <HowlBloom@aol.com><BR>>To: <jpankse@bgnet.bgsu.edu><BR>>Cc: <paleopsych@paleopsych.org><BR>>Subject: Jaak--is the lab an antique tool?<BR>><BR>>You tossed me an intriguing challenge when you came over to the bloom <BR>>brownstone a year or two ago. I've been chewing on it, using it for <BR>mindfuel, ever <BR>>since.<BR>><BR>>To make my theories count, you said, I had to be able to translate <BR>them into <BR>>predictions that could be proven or disproven in the lab. Good <BR>point. What <BR>>can't be operationalized and what can't be tested isn't science, right?<BR>><BR>>So for three months I tried to figure out how to put my ideas into lab-<BR>able <BR>>terms. That isn't easy. These concepts were seeded by 15 years of <BR>study in <BR>>theoretical physics, microbiology, psychology, religion, history, and <BR>the arts. <BR>><BR>>Many of the questions were tweaked and shaded by riding the rails and <BR>>adventuring. Then came the real deal--20 years of fieldwork in popular <BR>culture, in <BR>>visual art and music, in making superstars, in creating cultural <BR>whirlwinds <BR>>where there were only breezes before, from making hurricanes of <BR>passion in the <BR>>real world where a film like Purple Rain by Prince becomes a cultural <BR>legacy, <BR>>where it becomes the most popular makeout film for hormonally-driven <BR>teens who <BR>>were born long after the day I had to save Purple Rain from being <BR>canned by <BR>>Warner Brothers.<BR>><BR>>In the world of pop culture you do have to demonstrate science's <BR>basics, <BR>>prediction and control. You are forced to form hypotheses, then make <BR>predictions <BR>>about the next career move for Michael Jackson, Billy Idol, Billy <BR>Joel, Bob <BR>>Marley, or Joan Jett. An artist's lifetime work depends on whether <BR>your <BR>>prediction turns out true or false. The gifts or curses that reach the <BR>public depend <BR>>on your observation, your insight, and your accuracy. <BR>><BR>>But your hypotheses are often formed by your gut, your intellect, and <BR>your <BR>>intuition all working in parallel. You can't necessarily explain the <BR>things you <BR>>suspect, much less the things you know.<BR>><BR>>The subject matter you're studying is huge...far too huge to squeeze <BR>into the <BR>>lab. <BR>><BR>>So how DO we test the making of a culture storm in a lab on a <BR>university <BR>>campus in Boston, New York, Berkeley, or Bowling Green? The answer, <BR>it finally <BR>>dawned on me was not in trying to shrink hurricanes of mass emotion <BR>down to <BR>>something that can be replicated in a-pencil-and-paper test given to <BR>60 students <BR>>in exchange for credit toward their psychology requirements.<BR>><BR>>The problem you posed may not be in the nature of ideas generated in <BR>the <BR>>field, ideas generated by observational and participatory science. <BR>The problem <BR>>may be in the lab itself. <BR>><BR>>It could be that the lab is the Oldowan stone tool of science. It has <BR>been a <BR>>great tool for the last 120 years or so. I could never have <BR>formulated my <BR>>ideas without what the lab-work of Neil Miller and his proteges gave <BR>me in mouse <BR>>research. I could never have done it without the work that you have <BR>given me <BR>>with your laughing, tickled, and play-deprived mice. I could never <BR>have done <BR>>it without the lab-work neuroscientist like Ed Taub gave me in his <BR>work with <BR>>chimpanzees.<BR>><BR>>But, Jaak, the lab is not the solution, it's the problem. The lab is <BR>too <BR>>limited to catch most of what human behavior is about. It is too <BR>limited to <BR>>catch the mas passions that make a Hitler, an Osama Bin Laden, a <BR>Beethoven, a <BR>>Shakespeare, a Winston Churchill, or an FDR. It is too limited to <BR>assess whether <BR>>the CIA and the Mossad destroyed the world trade center or whether al <BR>qaeda <BR>>did it. If al qaida was the culprit, the lab is too limited to tell <BR>us what to <BR>>do next--what to do to defend our civilization from collapse.<BR>><BR>>The lab is even too limited to tell us whether our civilization is <BR>worth <BR>>fighting for.<BR>><BR>>Are these questions science must address? You bet. So the real <BR>question is <BR>>this. How do we make a genuine science of human passions, of mass <BR>emotions, <BR>>of mass perceptions, of popular culture, of high culture, of politics, <BR>and of <BR>>history. What new tool can we invent that takes us beyond the lab?<BR>><BR>>One clue is this. There are several real-world measures of mass moods <BR>and <BR>>mass perceptions. One is the stock market. Another is the real world <BR>>interaction that takes place in IMs, videogames, role playing games, <BR>and chat rooms. <BR>>In the cyberworld, every word and every nuance is recorded. All one <BR>needs is <BR>>permission from the participants to use the mass of data. <BR>><BR>>Another advantage of the cyberworld: folks from all over the world <BR>kick in. <BR>>An online group like the one devoted to the Philosophy of History is <BR>based in <BR>>Siberia and reaches out to Europe, the United States, South America, <BR>and <BR>>Australia. <BR>><BR>>There are many ways to slice and splice the data. There are many ways <BR>to <BR>>quantify, if quantification is what you want.<BR>><BR>>But it's critical to realize that some of the greatest distortions in <BR>the <BR>>sciences of the psyche have been created by the physics-and-equation-<BR>envy that <BR>>seize many of us and remove us from the real world. <BR>><BR>>If quality is what you want (and you, in particular, often do) not <BR>just <BR>>measurement, then getting our sciences out of the lab and into the <BR>real world is <BR>>critical.<BR>><BR>>The cyberworld may just be a convenient starting point.<BR>><BR>>My job, it turns out, is very different. After 20 years at the top of <BR>the <BR>>star-making business, 20 years of gut-hypotheses, it's time to do <BR>something very <BR>>difficult. It's time to translate what my muscles and my viscera know <BR>into <BR>>words.<BR>><BR>>And it's time to continue to practice the process of shaping human <BR>perception <BR>>in the real world so an Osama doesn't outdo us by understanding the <BR>human <BR>>passions far better than we in science do.<BR>><BR>>It's time to practice prediction and control in the world of <BR>tomorrow's <BR>>history.<BR>><BR>>Howard<BR>>----------<BR>>Howard Bloom<BR>>Author of The Lucifer Principle: A Scientific Expedition Into the <BR>Forces of <BR>>History and Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind From The Big Bang <BR>to the <BR>>21st Century<BR>>Visiting Scholar-Graduate Psychology Department, New York University; <BR>Faculty <BR>>Member, The Graduate Institute<BR>>www.howardbloom.net<BR>>www.bigbangtango.net<BR>>Founder: International Paleopsychology Project; founding board member: <BR>Epic <BR>>of Evolution Society; founding board member, The Darwin Project; <BR>founder: The <BR>>Big Bang Tango Media Lab; member: New York Academy of Sciences, <BR>American <BR>>Association for the Advancement of Science, American Psychological <BR>Society, Academy <BR>>of Political Science, Human Behavior and Evolution Society, <BR>International <BR>>Society for Human Ethology; advisory board member: Youthactivism.org; <BR>executive <BR>>editor -- New Paradigm book series.<BR>>For information on The International Paleopsychology Project, see: <BR>>www.paleopsych.org<BR>>for two chapters from <BR>>The Lucifer Principle: A Scientific Expedition Into the Forces of <BR>History, <BR>>see www.howardbloom.net/lucifer<BR>>For information on Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the <BR>Big Bang <BR>>to the 21st Century, see www.howardbloom.net<BR>><BR>><BR>---------End of Included Message----------</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10">----------<BR>Howard Bloom<BR>Author of The Lucifer Principle: A Scientific Expedition Into the Forces of History and Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind From The Big Bang to the 21st Century<BR>Visiting Scholar-Graduate Psychology Department, New York University; Faculty Member, The Graduate Institute<BR>www.howardbloom.net<BR>www.bigbangtango.net<BR>Founder: International Paleopsychology Project; founding board member: Epic of Evolution Society; founding board member, The Darwin Project; founder: The Big Bang Tango Media Lab; member: New York Academy of Sciences, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Psychological Society, Academy of Political Science, Human Behavior and Evolution Society, International Society for Human Ethology; advisory board member: Youthactivism.org; executive editor -- New Paradigm book series.<BR>For information on The International Paleopsychology Project, see: www.paleopsych.org<BR>for two chapters from <BR>The Lucifer Principle: A Scientific Expedition Into the Forces of History, see www.howardbloom.net/lucifer<BR>For information on Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century, see www.howardbloom.net<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>