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RE: Catastrophes, have you read <i>State of Fear</i> by Crichton? I
know, it has all the typical weaknesses of a Crichton novel, but he
effectively discounts global warming as a pseudo-fact being pushed by
politics and not science. So Posner's argument about warming seems to
be based on this pseudo-science. Crichton demolishes the Kyoto treaty
using actual peer-reviewed citations in his novel. <br>
<br>
The whole idea of putting lots of effort into avoiding an event that
will not happen is delicious coming from an attorney/judge, since
lawyers are twisting science (silicone breast implants cause no
problems; Cerebral palsy is not caused by OBs not doing caesarians) and
creating imaginary risks (Vioxx is a perfectly good drug when taken
with some precautions). <br>
<br>
More to the point, can we actually estimate probabilities? Five day
weather predictions are a joke -- the local weather people have been
predicting huge snowstorms that never materialized -- and so how can
we predict whether a particle accelerator can produce a mini-black
hole? Computer modeling is generally how we get such predictions, and
such modeling has been 'way off, at least the ones I have seen. <br>
<br>
Lynn<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Premise Checker wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="midPine.NEB.4.61.0501021531240.12779@panix1.panix.com">'Catastrophe':
Apocalypse When?
<br>
New York Times Book Review, 5.1.2
<br>
By PETER SINGER
<br>
<br>
CATASTROPHE
<br>
Risk and Response.
<br>
By Richard A. Posner.
<br>
322 pp. Oxford University Press. $28.
<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
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