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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3>The NASA report is extremely exciting. Congratulations on
stimulating the space agency to think commercial.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3></FONT></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3>The
report leaves out one tried and true component that could help achieve its
goals--the X-Prize. A series of X-Prize contests leading to low-earth
orbit, fuel depots in space, and eventually the moon and beyond may prove far
more effective in mobilizing talent than inviting bids. </FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3></FONT></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3>The
X-Prize competitors and sponsors have proven that a competition
between technologies forced to show their stuff is far more
convincing, exciting, and effective, than a battle between batches of
paperwork.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN></B> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3>Howard</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN></B> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">NASA and the
Business of Space</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> </SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">STATUS
REPORT</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><BR><B>Date
Released:</B> Friday, November 18, 2005<BR>Source: <A href="http://www.nasa.gov/" target=_blank><SPAN style="COLOR: #004080; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">NASA HQ</SPAN></A>
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><IMG SRC="cid:X.MA1.1132804234@aol.com" height=32 alt=image width=32 align=left v:shapes="_x0000_s1026" DATASIZE="73" ID="MA1.1132804234" ><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">American
Astronautical Society 52nd Annual Conference<BR>Michael D. Griffin <BR>NASA
Administrator <BR>15 November 2005 <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">When President Bush
announced the Vision for Space Exploration in January 2004, he made many
specific points, including one which has been little noted, but which we here
all believe; that the pursuit of the Vision will enhance America's economic,
scientific and security interests. He also made it clear that the first step in
the plan was to use the Space Shuttle to complete the assembly of the
International Space Station (ISS), after which the ISS would be used to further
the goals of exploration beyond low Earth orbit. These issues are all closely
related, and I believe </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">it is time to discuss
in more detail how the ISS will be used to accomplish them, and how it will fit
into a broader strategy for 21st century space exploration of the Moon, Mars and
beyond in a way that will spur commerce, advance scientific knowledge, and
expand humanity's horizons. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">We are entering the
dawn of the true space age. Our nation has the opportunity to lead the way. It
is an opportunity we are eager to pursue, and one which we are unwilling to
postpone. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But the exploration
of the solar system cannot be what we want it to be as an enterprise borne
solely by the American taxpayer, or even by the taxpayers of the nations willing
to join with us in this enterprise.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">If we are to make the
expansion and development of the space frontier an integral part of what it is
that human societies do, then these activities must, as quickly as possible,
assume an economic dimension as well. Government-directed space activity must
become a lesser rather than a greater part of what humans do in space. To this
end, it is up to us at NASA to use the challenge of the Vision for Space
Exploration to foster the commercial opportunities which are inherent to this
exciting endeavor. Our strategy to implement the Vision must, and we believe
does, have the potential to open a genuine and sustainable era of space
commerce. And the International Space Station will provide the first glimpses
into this new era. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Before we pursue
this thought further, let us summarize a few statistics from the ISS program. On
November 2nd, we marked the fifth year of consecutive human occupancy of the
Station. The Station has hosted 97 visitors from ten countries in its
approximately 425 cubic meters, a volume roughly the size of a typical
three-bedroom home. Of these, 29 have been crew members of the twelve ISS
expeditions which have flown to date. With the most recent spacewalk by
Expedition 12 Commander Bill McArthur and Flight Engineer Valery Tokarev, 63
have been conducted in support of ISS assembly, totaling nearly 380 hours. And
through the partnership we have with 15 other nations, we have learned to work
together on an incredibly complex systems engineering project. While it
certainly has not always gone smoothly, the simple fact of its accomplishment
has been an amazing feat. My oft-stated view is that the international
partnership is, in fact, the most important long-term benefit to be derived from
the ISS program. I think it is a harbinger of what we can accomplish in the
future as we move forward to even more ambitious objectives in space.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Indeed, the value of
this international collaboration was endorsed once again by a recent vote in
Congress, which lessened certain restrictions placed on our ability to cooperate
with Russia in the arena of manned spaceflight. This Congressional action helps
to ensure the continuous presence of American astronauts on the station. It
continues to reflect our government's commitment to nonproliferation objectives,
while recognizing the value of international cooperation in space exploration.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">So, how can the ISS
that we are building today help us to move beyond low Earth orbit tomorrow?
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">To begin, we are
focusing human research on ISS on the highest risks to crew health and other
issues we will face on long exploratory missions. This research will help us
understand the effects of long duration spaceflight on the human body, such as
bone and muscle loss, so that we can develop medical standards and protocols to
manage such risks. We have already had some successful anecdotal experience
among ISS crewmembers with exercise countermeasures. Perhaps ISS-based research
will one day help us to evaluate the efficacy of drugs to counter osteoporosis,
or long-term exposure to the radiation environment, or to test advanced
radiation detectors. The station will help us learn to deal with crew stress on
long missions, to enable them to remain emotionally healthy.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">With the ISS as a
testbed, we can learn to develop the medical technologies, including small and
reliable medical sensors and new telemedicine techniques, needed for missions
far from home. A milestone in that arena was achieved a year ago, when the
journal Radiology published its first research paper submitted directly from the
Station, ISS Science Officer Mike Fincke's account of the first use of
ultrasound in space for a shoulder examination. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The ISS can host,
and test, developmental versions of the new lox/methane engines we will need for
the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), and many other systems that we will need for
Mars. These include the development and verification of environmental control,
life support, and monitoring technologies, air revitalization, thermal control
and multiphase flow technologies, and research into flammability and fire
safety. As I have often said, when we set out for Mars, it will be like sealing
a crew into a submarine and telling them not to ask for help or return to port
for several years. We can't do that today. We have to be able to do it before
people can go to Mars. We'll learn to do it on the ISS, and later on the Moon.
And so, fundamentally, the ISS will allow us to learn to live and work in space.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">And even though this
research is focused on the tasks associated with setting up research bases on
the Moon and preparing the way for Mars exploration, it will also benefit
millions of people here on Earth. What we learn about bone loss mitigation and
cardiovascular deconditioning, the development of remote monitoring and medical
care, and water reclamation and environmental characterization technology
obviously has broader benefits. One certainly would not build a space station to
achieve these goals. But given that we have it, we intend to maximize the
science return from ISS in ways that will benefit both space exploration and our
society at large. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But now let us turn
to what I believe will be an even greater benefit of the ISS, and that is its
role in the development of space as an economic arena. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In order that we may
devote as much of NASA's budget as possible to the cutting edge of space
exploration, we must seek to reduce the cost of all things routine. Here in
2005, the definition of "routine" certainly should include robust, reliable, and
cost effective access to space for at least small and medium class payloads.
Unfortunately, it does not, and frankly, this is not an area where it is
reasonable to expect government to excel. Within the boundaries of available
technology, when we want an activity to be performed reliably and efficiently,
we in our society look to the competitive pressures of the free market to
achieve these goals. In space, these pressures have been notably lacking, in
part because the space "market" has historically been both specialized and
small. There have been exceptions – notably in the communications satellite
market – but the key word here is "exceptions". Broadly speaking, the market for
space services has never enjoyed either the breadth or the scale of competition
which has led, for example, to today's highly efficient air transportation
services. Without a strong, identifiable market, the competitive environment
necessary to achieve the advantages we associate with the free market simply
cannot arise. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">I believe that with
the advent of the ISS, there will exist for the first time a strong,
identifiable market for "routine" transportation service to and from LEO, and
that this will be only the first step in what will be a huge opportunity for
truly commercial space enterprise, inherent to the Vision for Space Exploration.
I believe that the ISS provides a tremendous opportunity to promote commercial
space ventures that will help us meet our exploration objectives and at the same
time create new jobs and new industry</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The clearly
identifiable market provided by the ISS is that for regular cargo delivery and
return, and crew rotation, especially after we retire the shuttle in 2010, but
earlier should the capability become available. We want to be able to buy these
services from American industry to the fullest extent possible. We believe that
when we engage the engine of competition, these services will be provided in a
more cost-effective fashion than when the government has to do it. To that end,
we have established a commercial crew/cargo project office, and assigned to it
the task of stimulating commercial enterprise in space by asking American
entrepreneurs to provide innovative, cost effective commercial cargo and crew
transportation services to the space station. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This fall, NASA will
post a draft announcement which seeks proposals from industry for flight
demonstrations to the International Space Station of any combination of the
following: external unpressurized cargo delivery and disposal, internal
pressurized cargo delivery and disposal, internal pressurized cargo delivery and
recovery, and crew transport. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">As these
capabilities are demonstrated in the years ahead, we will solicit proposals for
ongoing ISS transportation services from commercial providers. This announcement
offers the opportunity for industry to develop capabilities that, once proven,
NASA will purchase with great regularity, just as we regularly purchase launch
services for our robotic spacecraft today. Once the announcement is on the
street, we will receive proposals by late January, with the intent to execute
agreements by May of next year. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This competition
will be open to emerging and established companies, with foreign content
allowed, consistent with American law and policy. Proposals can include any mix
of existing or new designs and hardware. NASA does not have a preferred
solution. Our requirements will be couched, to the maximum extent possible, in
terms of performance objectives, not process. Process requirements which remain
will reflect matters of fundamental safety of life and property, or other basic
matters. It will not be government "business as usual". If those of you in
industry find it to be otherwise, I expect to hear from you on the matter.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">With this plan, and
providing of course that we retain the support of the Congress necessary to
carry it out, we will put about a half-billion dollars in play over the five
years to promote competition that is good for the private sector and good for
the public interest. I'm confident that this kind of financial incentive, on
different terms than are usual with NASA, or indeed with any government entity,
will result in the emergence of substantial commercial providers. Such successes
will, in their turn, serve as a justification for even greater use of such
"non-traditional" acquisition methods. As I have said in other venues, my use of
the words "non-traditional" here is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, because what we
are talking about is completely traditional in the bulk of our economy which is
not driven by government procurement. In this larger economy, when there exist
customers with specific needs and the financial resources to satisfy these
needs, suppliers compete avidly to meet them. We need more of this in the space
enterprise. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But as stated
earlier, this is only the first step. An explicit goal of our exploration
systems architecture was to provide an avenue for the creation of a substantial
space economy by suitably leveraging government investment to meet its stated
mission requirements.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"> The architecture we
announced in September was designed so that NASA would provide, but would
provide only, the essential transportation elements and infrastructure to get
beyond low Earth orbit. The heavy lift launchers and crew vehicles necessary to
journey beyond LEO cannot, in anything like the near future, be provided by any
entity other than NASA, on behalf of the U.S. government. The analogy I have
used elsewhere is that NASA will build the "interstate highway" that will allow
us to return to the Moon, and to go to Mars. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">We as a nation once had the
systems to build this "interstate highway" leading out into the solar system, we
should have retained and evolved them, but we did not. So we need to rebuild
them.<SPAN style="COLOR: blue"> But the "highways" themselves are not, and are
not supposed to be, the interesting part. What is interesting are the
destinations and, particularly to the point of the present discussion, the
service stations, hotels, and other businesses and accommodations that we will
find at the "exit ramps" of our future "interstate highways" in space. It is
here that a robust commercial market can develop to support our exploration
goals, and eventually to go beyond them. I think we are at the start of
something big, somewhat akin to what we saw with the personal computer 25 years
ago. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">To my point, NASA's
exploration architecture does what it must. It fulfills the mission required of
it by the President, according to the terms of a major speech and written
policy. It does so in a fashion which some have labeled as "boring" or "lacking
pizzazz", but which others have observed makes efficient use of the building
blocks that we as a nation own today, and in which the pieces "fit together like
a fine Swiss watch". I believe these seemingly divergent views are merely two
sides are the same coin, reflecting the fact that the plan delivers what it
must, without including what it need not. Nothing else is acceptable in these
fiscally challenging times. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But the building
blocks of our architecture could easily be used to accomplish much more, with
the right leverage from commercial providers. To see how this is so, observe
first that our "1.5 launch solution" separates the smaller crew launch from that
of the heavy, high- value cargo, both on Shuttle-derived launch vehicle
variants. While this approach allows us to meet lunar return mission
requirements with U.S. government systems – no external entities are in the
critical path for mission accomplishment – it does not exclude such entities,
and indeed provides several "hooks" and "scars" by which their services can be
used to facilitate or enhance the mission. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">By the time we are
ready to return to the Moon, the ISS will have been completed and will be in
receipt of routine commercial resupply and crew rotation service for, we hope,
several years. So, if the plan for stimulating the development of ISS commercial
crew rotation capability is successful, it becomes possible to envision the crew
launch phase of the lunar mission being carried out on commercial systems. This
would be a service we could purchase commercially, leaving the very heavy lift
requirements to the government system, for which it is less likely that there
will be other commercial applications during this period. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Whether or not this
occurs, other options are also possible. Astute observers will note that the
Shuttle-derived heavy lift vehicle (SDHLV) that we have proposed is not, as a
rocket, being optimally utilized for its lunar mission. This is because some of
the fuel in the so-called "Earth departure stage" is used to lift the lunar
payload into Earth orbit, but additional fuel must yet be retained for the
translunar ignition burn of over 3 km/s. From a purely architectural point of
view, the SDHLV is an expensive vehicle, most aptly utilized for lifting only
expensive cargo, such as the man-rated systems it carries. But in our
architecture, some of its lift capacity must be utilized to carry fuel into low
Earth orbit. This is unsatisfying, because when on the ground, fuel is about the
cheapest material employed in any aspect of the space business. Its value in
orbit (at least several thousand dollars per pound) is almost completely a
function of its location rather than intrinsic to its nature. In contrast, the
value of, say, the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) brought up on the
heavy-lifter will be well over $100 K per pound, most of which represents its
intrinsic cost. The additional value it acquires when transported to its new
position in LEO remains a small part of the total value. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Logically, then, we
should seek to use the SDHLV only for the highest-value cargo, and specifically
we should desire to place fuel in orbit by the cheapest means possible, in
whatever manner this can be accomplished, whether of high reliability or not.
However, in deciding to embark on a lunar mission, we cannot afford the
consequential damage of not having fuel available when needed. Recognizing that
fact, our mission architecture hauls its own Earth- departure fuel up from the
ground for each trip. But if there were a fuel depot available on orbit, one
capable of being replenished at any time, the Earth departure stage could after
refueling carry significantly more payload to the Moon, maximizing the utility
of the inherently expensive SDHLV for carrying high-value cargo.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">But NASA's
architecture does not feature a fuel depot. Even if it could be afforded within
the budget constraints which we will likely face – and it cannot – it is
philosophically the wrong thing for the government to be doing. It is not
"necessary"; it is not on the critical path of things we "must do" to return
astronauts to the Moon. It is a highly valuable enhancement, but the mission is
not hostage to its availability. It is exactly the type of enterprise which
should be left to industry and to the marketplace. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">So let us look
forward ten or more years, to a time when we are closer to resuming human
exploration of the Moon. The value of such a commercially operated fuel depot in
low Earth orbit at that time is easy to estimate. Such a depot would support at
least two planned missions to the Moon each year. The architecture which we have
advanced places about 150 metric tons in LEO, 25 MT on the Crew Launch Vehicle
and 125 MT on the heavy-lifter. Of the total, about half will be propellant in
the form of liquid oxygen and hydrogen, required for the translunar injection to
the Moon. If the Earth departure stage could be refueled on-orbit, the crew and
all high-value hardware could be launched using a single SDHLV, and all of this
could be sent to the Moon. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">There are several
ways in which the value of this extra capability might be calculated, but at a
conservatively low government price of $10,000/kg for payload in LEO, 250 MT of
fuel for two missions per year is worth $2.5 B, at government rates. If a
commercial provider can supply fuel at a lower cost, both the government and the
contractor will benefit. This is a non-trivial market, and it will only grow as
we continue to fly. The value of fuel for a single Mars mission may be several
billion dollars by itself. Once industry becomes fully convinced that the United
States, in company with its international partners, is headed out into the solar
system for good, I believe that the economics of such a business will attract
multiple competitors, to the benefit of both stockholders and taxpayers.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Best of all, such an
approach enables us to leverage the value of the government system without
putting commercial fuel deliveries in the critical path. If the depot is there
and is full, we can use it. But with the architecture we have advanced, we can
conduct missions to the Moon without it. The government does not need to have
oversight, or even insight, into the quality and reliability of the fuel
delivery service. If fuel is not delivered, the loss belongs to the operator,
not to the government. If fuel is delivered and maintained in storage, the
contractors are paid, whether or not the government flies its intended missions.
If long-term delivery contracts are negotiated, and the provider learns to
effect deliveries more efficiently, the gain is his, not the government's. Since
fuel is completely fungible, it can be left to the provider to determine the
optimum origin, size and method of a delivering it. And finally, though I would
rather not do it, it is even possible that we could develop such a market in
stages, with the first fuel tank provided by the government, and then turned
over to a commercial provider to store and maintain fuel for future missions,
and to expand the tank farm as warranted by the market. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">To maintain and
operate the fuel depot, periodic human support may be needed. Living space in
Earth orbit may be required; if so, this presents yet another commercial
opportunity for people like Bob Bigelow, who is already working on developing
space habitats. So the logistics needs of the fuel depot may provide more of the
same opportunities that we will pioneer with ISS. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Fuel and other
consumables will not always be most needed where they are stored. Will orbital
transfer and delivery services develop, with reusable "space tugs" ferrying
goods from centralized stockpiles to other locations? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The fuel depot
operator will need power for refrigeration and other support systems. This might
well be left to specialty suppliers who know nothing of the storage and
maintenance of cryogenic tank farms, but who know a lot about how to generate
and store power. Could these be standard power modules, developed and delivered
for a fee to locations specified by the user? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In the course of
conducting many fuel replenishment missions and associated operations,
commercial launch and orbital systems of known and presumably high reliability
will be developed and evolved. Government mission planners will be able to take
advantage of these systems, which will become "known quantities" by virtue of
their track record rather than through the at best mixed blessings of government
development oversight. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">There will also be a
private sector role in supporting a variety of lunar surface systems and
infrastructure, including lunar habitats, power and science facilities, surface
rovers, logistics and resupply, communications and navigation, and in situ
resource utilization equipment. There may or may not be gold on the Moon – I'm
not sure we care – but we may well witness a 21st century gold rush of sorts
when entrepreneurs learn to roast oxygen from the lunar soil, saving a major
portion of the cost of bringing fuel to the lunar surface. Will a time come when
it is more economical to ship liquid oxygen from the lunar surface to low Earth
orbit, then to bring it up from Earth? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This will all start
to become "really real" in 10 years or so. As I see it, these are exactly the
kinds of enterprises to which government is poorly suited, but which in the
hands of the right entrepreneur can earn that person a cover on Fortune
magazine. But it will take enlightened government management to bring it about,
management as much in the form of what not to do, as to do. In the coming years
and decades, NASA must focus on its core government role as a provider of
infrastructure broadly applicable to the common good, and too expensive for any
single business entity to develop. NASA must remain on the frontier, and must
conscientiously architect its plans to favor the inclusion of entrepreneurs
through arms-length transactions wherever possible, restricting the use of
classic "prime contracts" to situations where they are the right tool, not the
default tool. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">With the beginning
of space station operations five years ago, we are now at a point children born
at the beginning of the 21st century will live their lives knowing that there
will always be people living and working in space. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">And the number of
people who will be engaged in such activity will grow by leaps and bounds if we
in government are faithful in executing our role in helping the private sector
to step up to these new opportunities. I hope there are many entrepreneurs in
this audience who have the vision to help us help them pioneer the commercial
space frontier. You, and all those engaged in the quest that we are undertaking,
have my sincere thanks and appreciation.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10">----------<BR>Howard Bloom<BR>Author of The Lucifer Principle: A
Scientific Expedition Into the Forces of History and Global Brain: The Evolution
of Mass Mind From The Big Bang to the 21st Century<BR>Recent Visiting
Scholar-Graduate Psychology Department, New York University; Core Faculty
Member, The Graduate
Institute<BR>www.howardbloom.net<BR>www.bigbangtango.net<BR>Founder:
International Paleopsychology Project; founding board member: Epic of Evolution
Society; founding board member, The Darwin Project; founder: The Big Bang Tango
Media Lab; member: New York Academy of Sciences, American Association for the
Advancement of Science, American Psychological Society, Academy of Political
Science, Human Behavior and Evolution Society, International Society for Human
Ethology; advisory board member: Institute for Accelerating Change ; executive
editor -- New Paradigm book series.<BR>For information on The International
Paleopsychology Project, see: www.paleopsych.org<BR>for two chapters from
<BR>The Lucifer Principle: A Scientific Expedition Into the Forces of History,
see www.howardbloom.net/lucifer<BR>For information on Global Brain: The
Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century, see
www.howardbloom.net<BR></FONT></DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML>